Coronavirus dashboard for July 8: deaths in the South and West finally suggest increasing trend Coronavirus death statistics have been plagued recently by State data dumps, where months of deaths have been released on a single day. In the past 2 weeks, both NJ and NY’s such releases had skewed the numbers. As of today, […]
by New Deal democrat Weekly Indicators for July 6 – 10 at Seeking Alpha My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. While the forecasts remain inexplicably positive, the nowcast worsened slightly. As usual, clicking over and reading should bring you up to the moment on the economy, and will also reward me ever so […]
Coronavirus dashboard for July 8: deaths in the South and West finally suggest increasing trend Coronavirus death statistics have been plagued recently by State data dumps, where months of deaths have been released on a single day. In the past 2 weeks, both NJ and NY’s such releases had skewed the numbers. As of today, […]
Coronavirus dashboard for July 7, 2020: deaths as a *very* lagging statistic Total diagnosed US coronavirus cases: 2,928,418 7 day average: 50,135 Total US coronavirus deaths: 122,915 7 day average: 480 The renewed exponential spread of coronavirus cases is continuing. We will probably be over 3 million cases within 48 hours. Including all of the […]
The 2020 Presidential election forecast from State polling: a Biden tsunami threatens to swamp the GOP Senate For the past two weeks, I have posted a projection of the Electoral College vote based solely on State rather than national polls (since after all that is how the College operates) that have been reported in the […]
Frederick Douglass’s oration on the 4th of July (abridged) The middle portion of Douglass’s famous speech, delivered in 1852 to white abolitionists in Rochester, NY, where Douglass lived at the time, and is buried — “What, to the American slave, is your 4th of July?” — is best known. But in the first portion he […]
June data starts out with a bright spot in manufacturing Earlier this week the last of the regional Fed Districts, Dallas, reported their manufacturing indexes for June. The overall picture has been a strong rebound: Regional Fed New Orders Indexes (*indicates report this week) Empire State up +41.8 to -0.6 Philly up +42.4 to +16.7 Richmond up +30 […]
June jobs report: the last hurrah of the wished-for “V-shaped” coronavirus recovery HEADLINES: 4,800,000 million jobs added. This makes up about 22% of the 22.1 million job losses in March and April. U3 unemployment rate improved 2.2% from 13.3% to 11.1%, compared with the January low of 3.5%. U6 underemployment rate improved 3.2% from 21.2% […]
Coronavirus dashboard for June 29: renewed exponential growth in infections, decline in deaths has stalled Total US infections: 2,549,069, 42,161 in last day Total US deaths: 125,803, 273 in last day Here is the regional breakdown of the 7 day average of new cases per capita: There is renewed exponential growth in the South and […]
The US Presidential election as forecast by State polling: tending towards a Biden blowout? Last week I posted a projection of the Electoral College vote based solely on State rather than national polls (since after all that is how the College operates) that have been reported in the last 30 days. There has been extensive […]