The 2020 Presidential election forecast from State polling: a Biden tsunami threatens to swamp the GOP Senate
The 2020 Presidential election forecast from State polling: a Biden tsunami threatens to swamp the GOP Senate
For the past two weeks, I have posted a projection of the Electoral College vote based solely on State rather than national polls (since after all that is how the College operates) that have been reported in the last 30 days.
Here’s how it works:
– States where the race is closer than 3% are shown as toss-ups.
– States where the range is between 3% to 5% are light colors.
– States where the range is between 5% and 10% are medium colors.
– States where the candidate is leading by 10% plus are dark colors.
Here is the updated map as of the 4th of July:
There is one change since last week and it is an important one: by the barest of margins North Carolina has moved from toss-up to lean Biden.
As was the case last week, if Biden simply won the States in which he leads by 5% or more in the polling, he would win the Electoral College, without even winning a single “toss-up” or “lean Biden” State as shown on the map.
There has been an enormous “reversion to the mean” element about Trump’s support going all the way back to 2016, so I still expect several of the States of the Confederacy to revert to being pro-Trump.
He always polls his worst when he is not just cruel, but cluelessly incompetent at it. Since he seems to want to run on being anti-Black lives matter, pro-Confederate statues, and pro-coronavirus even as the next tsunami wave is hitting, his present situation certainly qualifies. Here is Nate Silver’s most current measure of Trump approval:
- The past 3 polls in Iowa all have Jodi Ernst losing.
- Both of the last two polls in Montana show the Democrat Governor Bullock leading in that State’s Senate contest.
- Two of the last five polls in Georgia show Democrats leading in the races for one of the two Senate seats up this year.
- Most shockingly, two of the last three polls in Kansas (which if memory serves correctly hasn’t elected a Democrat to the Senate in close to 100 years) show Democrat Barbara Bollier leading in that State’s contest as well.
I predict that there will be a lot of “protecting” the integrity of our vote actions by the GOP legislatures coming up in the next few months and it seems the SCOTUS is more than willing to back these actions up.
I’m always amazed by Iowa politics. Three of the four House seats in Iowa are held by Democrats yet both Senate seats are occupied by Republicans. Both of them, Ernst and Gallegly, are seriously damaged goods. Heck Gallegly is so pathetic that a cardboard cutout of himself would be a huge improvement. Ernst isn’t much better.
today 38% of voters think Biden has dementia. That number has no place to go but up.
https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2020/38_of_voters_think_biden_has_dementia
Well, I am not comfortable.
This https://projects.economist.com/us-2020-forecast/president shows Sleepy Joe with only an 89% chance of winning the Electoral College.
Krasting,
Why waste our time with that fen crap? Those people believe everything that trump tells them to think. Reality means nothing.
Over 70% of Republican voters still think Obama was not an American. Cut that in half and we get that 38%.
Total waste of time listening to trump, and listening to people that voted for him.