Weekly Indicators for January 10 – 14 at Seeking Alpha – by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. In addition to Omicron, commodity prices and interest rates are having an impact across the board on the long and short term forecasts and the nowcast. (Just for spite, two weeks ago some […]
December real retail sales tank; industrial production also declines; consumer slowdown seems nearly certain – by New Deal democrat Two days ago, in connection with consumer inflation, I reiterated that: “we certainly are at a point where a sharp deceleration beginning with the consumer sector of the economy is more likely than not.” I […]
Continuing unemployment claims make new 45+ year low – by New Deal democrat New claims increased 23,000 last week to 230,000. The 4 week average of new claims increased 6,250 to 210,750: The big increase is likely affected by seasonality. It’ll be another week or two before we can tell if there is any real change […]
Consumer inflation lessens in December; real wages increase, but a consumer slowdown remains likely Consumer prices increased 0.5% in December, a deceleration from the past several months. But this is still well above the typical monthly increase in prices pre-pandemic: On a YoY basis, at 7.1% consumer inflation is the highest since the big Reagan […]
Coronavirus dashboard for January 11: good news and bad news With no new economic releases today, let me give you a brief update on the fast-moving Omicron wave.First, the good news: as I pointed out yesterday, several States that were hit hardest first by Omicron look like they are hitting or have already hit peak: […]
Coronavirus dashboard for January 10: how “mild” Omicron is depends upon how much you lag the data So, how “mild” or not, is Omicron? It depends on whether you lag the data on hospitalizations and deaths or not.The original story out of South Africa was that Omicron was extremely mild. Despite a huge spike in […]
by New Deal democrat Weekly Indicators for January 3 – 7 at Seeking Alpha My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. Surprisingly, Omicron has not had any wide impact on the coincident data – at least not yet. On the other hand, the long leading forecast has become weaker, as interest rates have moved […]
December jobs report: more signs of real tightness, while new jobs added are (seasonally?) disappointing There were three big questions I had going into this jobs report: 1. whether the big decrease in new jobless claims to a half century low would translate to another big top line number in the jobs report 2. is […]
December jobs report: more signs of real tightness, while new jobs added are (seasonally?) disappointing There were three big questions I had going into this jobs report: 1. whether the big decrease in new jobless claims to a half-century low would translate to another big top-line number in the jobs report2. is wage growth holding up? […]
Initial and continuing jobless claims: 2022 starts out where 2021 left off The labor market in 2022 started out where it left off in 2021, as new claims increased slightly, by 7,000, to 207,000. The 4 week average of new claims increased 4.750 to 204,500: Readings this low haven’t been seen in half a century. […]