On the retirement of Justice Breyer: is this any way to run a country? Long long ago I remember reading that Justices William Brennan and Thurgood Marshall, both about 70 years old at the time, decided not to retire during the Presidency of Jimmy Carter, because he was not liberal enough, preferring to wait for […]
Real personal income and spending both decline in December; no imminent worry but evidence of softening Nominal personal income rose 0.3% in December, while spending declined -0.6%. In real terms after inflation, personal income declined -0.1%, and personal consumption expenditures declined -1.0%. Nevertheless, both remain well above their pre-pandemic levels: Here is what the same […]
Real Q4 GDP completes the Boom of 2021, while long leading components warn of weaker 2022 to come Nominal GDP increased 6.9% in the 4th Quarter of 2021. After taking into account inflation, it increased 1.7% The last six economic quarters together have been the biggest economic Boom since 1983-84, as shown in the below […]
With seasonality over, it is clear that Omicron is responsible for increased layoffs With seasonality behind us, it is apparent that Omicron has resulted in increased layoffs. New claims declined 30,000 last week to 260,000 – still well above its pandemic low of 188,000 set early in December. The 4 week average of new claims […]
New home sales surge, while house price measures decelerate; expect deceleration or even downturns in each Since I didn’t post yesterday, let me catch up today with a note on both new home sales and prices.New home sales (blue in the graph below) for December rose sharply to 811,000 on an annualized basis. This is […]
New Deal democrat, “Historical Note on US Treasury Interest Rates and Stock Prices“ Over the weekend I was asked by two people what is going on in the markets. That’s usually a sign that there has been a sudden downside move, and people are getting emotional. Back 5 and 10 years ago, when I was […]
Coronavirus dashboard: Omicron has peaked; now what?, New Deal Democrat – by New Deal democratLet’s start out with the good, or at least less catastrophic news: it’s almost certain that the Omicron wave has peaked in the US. In fact, the only Census region it is still up week over week is in the Midwest: […]
Fox News and white grievance In his recent book “Kill Switch,” Adam Jentleson, a former aide to the late Senator Harry Reid, persuasively argues that the Senate filibuster arose by accident when a rule revision in 1805 failed to include the “previous question” resolution, which would require a vote on the issue pending because it […]
Housing ends 2021 with a bang Housing ended 2021 with a bang, as housing starts (blue in the graph below, left scale) increased to 1.702 million annualized, and permits (gold) to 1.873 million annualized, in both cases the highest level since 2006 with the sole exception of last March / January, respectively. Single family permits […]
by New Deal democrat Short term economic forecast through mid year 2022 My short-term forecast for the first half of this year is up at Seeking Alpha. This forecast is based on the same system I have successfully used since before the Great Recession. Most forecasters, deliberately or not, cherry pick data points to fit a […]