Coronavirus dashboard for August 24: the post BA.5 wave respite In general, things are headed in the right direction for now in the pandemic. BIobot’s latest wastewater update from one week ago shows a 1/3rd decline in COVID particles nationwide. Here’s the regional breakdown: The West, spearheaded by CA, is down 50%, and the South […]
July new home sales signal a recession is near Let’s start with reminders about new home sales data: 1. It is very noisy 2. It is heavily revised. But 3. It usually leads at peaks and troughs. With that in mind, unless today’s new home sales data for July is revised away, it is very […]
The state of inflation There’s no big economic news today (Aug. 22), and as usual very limited COVID reporting over the weekend, so let’s catch up on the state of inflation in the economy. Three of the biggest components of inflation have been gas, housing, and vehicles. Let’s look at each in that order. According […]
Weekly Indicators for August 15 – 19 at Seeking Alpha My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. The continued decline in gas prices has been doing some nice things to other indicators as well. Meanwhile, manufacturing as measured by the regional Feds is getting worse. As usual, clicking over and reading will bring you […]
Prices of existing homes have probably peaked By now you may already know that existing home sales declined further in July, to an 8 year low (excluding the pandemic lockdown months: This is roughly a 30% decline from their peak, and is certainly a recessionary level. But perhaps more importantly at the moment, it […]
July real retail sales show more stagnation, but slightly positive YoY Consumption leads employment. Increasing demand for goods and services leads employers to hire more people to fulfill that demand. That, in a nutshell, is the biggest reason why real retail sales is one of my favorite economic indicators. In July, nominal retail sales increased […]
Industrial production heats up in July If the news in the housing sector this morning was bad, the news from the King of Coincident Indicators, industrial production, was quite good. Total production rose 0.6% to a new all-time high. Manufacturing production rose 0.7%, and is below its April peak by only -0.1%: Barring downward revisions, […]
Housing permits, starts, and units under construction telegraph a deeper economic decline ahead Housing had another negative month in July. Permits (gold in the graph below) declined -1.3% to 1.674 units annualized, an 8 month low. Single family permits (red, right scale) declined -4.3% to 928,000 units annualized, the lowest since January 2020 except for […]
Housing affordability: at or near the worst this Millennium The NAR calculates a monthly “housing affordability index,” which estimates the median mortgage payment for the median priced existing home based on an estimate of median household income. For June that came in at 98.5: Not only has affordability deteriorated sharply this year, but the June […]
Weekly Indicators for August 8 – 12 at Seeking Alpha My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. Gas prices continue to be the dominant driver of changes in the current situation. As usual, clicking over and reading will bring you fully up to date on the economic nowcast and forecast, and also reward me […]