The long leading outlook through mid year 2023 at Seeking Alpha I posted the long leading outlook this last week at Seeking Alpha, and seeing as there is no big economic news today, this might be a good day to bring you up to speed. My long leading outlook for 12 months from now can […]
Jobless claims: once again, a relentless uptrend I feel like a broken record at this point, as every week the trend seems more and more relentless. Initial jobless claims rose once again, by 14,000 (seriously revised down by 12,000 from last week’s reading of 260,000) to 262,000. More importantly, the 4 week average rose another […]
July consumer inflation: a tale of two disparate trends – by New Deal democrat Consumer prices were unchanged in July, as two very disparate trends canceled out one another. YoY prices increased 8.5%, below June’s multi-decade record of 9.0%: The two disparate trends are shown in the below bar graph of monthly changes since the […]
Coronavirus dashboard for August 9: BA.5 dominant, with a slow waning; a model for endemicity – by New Deal democrat BIobot’s most recent update, through last week, shows a decline of 15% of COVID in wastewater, consistent with about 460,000 “real” new infections per day: All 4 Census regions (not shown) are participating in […]
Previewing July CPI: good news and bad news about gas, housing, and vehicle prices – by New Deal democrat While July’s consumer inflation is likely to be less intense than in recent months, I don’t see it coming back down to more “normal” levels. The good news is gas; the bad news is vehicles and housing. […]
Weekly Indicators for August 1 – 5 at Seeking Alpha – by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. Several important metrics have reversed course in the past month. Interest rates, especially mortgage rates, have declined (in the case of mortgages, by 1 full % from their peak. As many have pointed […]
July jobs report: in which an absolute positive blowout make me happily wrong; all pandemic job losses now recovered – by New Deal democrat As I wrote earlier this week, the short leading indicators for both jobs (real retail sales) and the unemployment rate (initial jobless claims) have each signaled that we should expect weaker […]
Jobless claims continue their relentless climb – by New Deal democrat Initial jobless claims rose 6,000 to 260,000 last week. More importantly, the 4 week average, which has been rising relentlessly, rose another 6,000 as well to 254,750, an 8 month high. Continuing claims also rose 48,000 to 1,417,000, the highest since April: Initial claims […]
Coronavirus dashboard for August 3: is this what endemicity looks like? – by New Deal democrat Confirmed cases nationwide (dotted line below) declined to 121,700, still within their recent 120-130,000 range. Deaths (solid line) are also steady at 431, within their recent 400-450 range as well: Hospitalizations have plateaued in the past 10 days reported […]
JOLTS report for June amplifies likelihood of substantial downturn in job growth, upturn in unemployment Before we get to the JOLTS report for June, which was released this morning, I wanted to make a point about the overall trend in employment. Because, the two best short leading indicators for employment and unemployment are both pointing […]