Lockdowns work
Lockdowns work
1. San Francisco (lockdown ordered March 16) vs. New York City (lockdown ordered March 20)
2. San Francisco vs. Miami-Dade County (no lockdown)
3. Kentucky vs. Tennessee
4. Italy
Lockdowns work. We only need complete lockdowns a few weeks, during which we ramp up manufacture and supplies to test kits and emergency medical equipment like masks and ventilators.
“We only need complete lockdowns a few weeks”
So, I can expect to see you (at a distance of course) at Easter services with The Dumpster®?
A few weeks is more like 8 or 9. I am waiting to see what happens in Wuhan to see if it is really safe to go out, or just somewhat safer.
We only need complete lockdowns a few weeks, during which we ramp up manufacture and supplies to test kits and emergency medical equipment like masks and ventilators.
Sadly, both parts of that sentence have to be true. Judging by the US data over the past few weeks, we’re not all that close to starting the top of the sigmoid S yet.
I’m hopeful you’re correct about efficacy of the lockdowns. It may be a little too early to make the call on Italy. It seems there may be a point of spread after which social distancing may not be sufficient.
In Wuhan, China mandated out of home quarantine for suspected and diagnosed cases to prevent spread to family members after finding in-home was not effective enough. That is a significant portion of how they were able to stamp it out so quickly.
During this lockdown phase, we need to ramp up resources to be able to have comprehensive detection and tracking regimens and should shift to everyone wearing a mask as a social norm, whether or not you are infected to limit the spread from undiagnosed individuals. That is how China was able to open up the rest of the country.
Bill McBride has an outline of plan generally along these lines:
https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2020/03/a-40-day-plan-to-start-recovery.html
Look, people talking about 8 or 9 weeks of lockdown are dreamers unless there is a very convincing national policy the assures minimal loss of go-forward income for a couple years like by the end of next week. These lockdowns will collapse the weekend of April 4-5 otherwise is what I expect The police already sense it – talk with some of them. They are not at all prepared to maintain these policies against resistance. It needs to be made overwhelmingly obvious that it is in the financial interest of individuals and families to enthusiastically adhere to these measures really soon. Here is the message that is taking shape and will be unstoppable in another week: worst case maybe 50% get in the next year. When the tests get going stronger and the math is done right, mortality will be double flu, but under 1%. And that mortality is not at all randomly distributed. The 39 year-old with 3 kids had better have great reasons to go along with this in ten days.