Coronavirus dashboard for March 26: southern “red” States resist effective measures
Coronavirus dashboard for March 26: southern “red” States resist effective measures
Here is the update through yesterday (March 25)
In order to succeed in containing the pandemic, I believe that the US needs at least 2 weeks of China (nearly complete lockdown) followed by at least a month of South Korea (very aggressive and widespread testing).
At minimum, that means at least 50% of the US population under lockdown and a ratio of 15:1 in tests to results showing infection. The recent exponential growth of about 35% per day must be stopped. Those three most important metrics are starred (***) below.
Yesterday we crossed two out of three of those thresholds – just over 50% of the population is under lockdown or near lockdown, and the rate of increase in new infections decelerated substantially. The amount of testing continues to fall are short of what is necessary.
Number and rate of increase of Reported Infections (from Johns Hopkins via arcgis.com)
- Number: up +13,972 to 69,197 (vs. +11,705 on March 25)
- ***Rate of increase: day/day: 25% (vs. 34.6% baseline and vs. 19% on March 24)
- Number: 74,082, down vs. 65,840 on March 25 day/day
- Rate: increase of 13% vs. number of tests previous day
- Deaths: 887 total, up +212, or +31% day/day
Comparison of rates of increase in documented infections vs. testing
- Infections +25% vs. Tests +13% day/day
Result: The rate of testing is failing to improve and is far, far below what is needed, which is probably now at least 150,000/day.
Deaths lag infections by about 2 weeks, and are still growing at a far higher exponential rate for now.
- Number: 65,105 new tests vs. 9,806 new diagnosed infections
- ***Ratio: 6.6:1
In South Korea, where aggressive testing has led to a near-total disappearance of new cases, the inflection point where the number of new daily cases plateaued was reached when the ratio of tests to new cases found reached 15:1. Any ratio less than that suggests that not enough testing is being done. Yesterday’s ratio of 6.6:1 is poor. We remain way behind in the number of tests we are administering.
Number of States (+DC and Puerto Rico) in total lockdown, business lockdown, and partial restrictions
- Total lockdown (personal + business): 21 (CA, CO, CT, DE, HI, ID, IL, IN, LA, MN, NM, MI, NJ, NY, OH, OR, PR, VT, WA, WI, WV)
- Business lockdown: 7 (DC, KY, MA, MD, ME*, NV, PA*)
- Partial restrictions on business (restaurants and bars): 17 (AL, FL*, GA*, IA, MO, MS, MT, NH, NC*, ND, RI, SC*, TN*, TX*, UT*, VA, WY)
- School closure only: 6 (AK, AZ, AR, KS, OK, SD)
- No mandatory restrictions: 1 (NE*)
With the exception of Arizona, all of the remaining States with no restrictions or only school closures are rural
.
- ***Total lockdown: 138.6 million, 47.3%
- ***Business lockdown: 39.2 million, 11.8%
- Partial restrictions on business (bars, restaurants): 117.4 million, 35.4%
- School closure only: 16.4 million, 4.9%
- No mandatory restrictions: 1.9 million, 0.6%
Earlier this week, there was a decisive move towards more restrictive measures across the board. This has all but ground to a halt across the southern “red” States. Continued exponential growth in those States will teach a brutal lesson.
As of yesterday, including metro areas in some States, over half of the total US population is under total lockdown. That is the percentage, AT MINIMUM, I think we need to have a chance of following China’s successful strategy for beating back the pandemic. The deceleration of the rate of increase in new cases may be the first signs that “social distancing” is bearing some fruit. The rate of testing, however, remains abysmally too low compared with the spread of the virus.
There is NO HOPE that the federal government under Trump will take necessary measures. Therefore those States which have gone to lockdowns need to cooperate regionally in quarantining incoming visitors at airports, train stations and at highway checkpoints.
“train stations”
What % of the USA population “rides the rails”?
Dr. Birx is arguing the models are wrong and are being adjusted-decreased-by a factor of 10 or more. Does nothing about the spread nor the crushing of the medical system but it paves the way for “ the cure is worth than the disease” folks. 200,000 dead is a lot better than 2 million
NDD, you have been a valuable resource for AB with your reporting on Coronavirus and its impact on us. Thank you.
Meanwhile, the Detroit Big Three are going to call their workers back to work come April 6 per the DA’s suggesting we all go back to work then.
Total cases are up over 200000
The current average death rate for countries that have at least ten known deaths is 3.64%.
There are five countries below 1%. Germany, Austria, and Norway took quick and decisive action to contain and test. Australia is the fifth, and I’m not confident they will stay that low, though I hope to be wrong.
South Korea, which is the closest thing to a Sigmoid outside of China, is at 1.5%–and that’s after taking drastic measures (that have not been mirrored in the U.S) AND simultaneously testing the bejeezus out of their population (ibid).
I don’t see any other country that has started the top of the sigmoid, and even if you discount the Is (Italy, Iraq, Indonesia, and Iran all have a death rate between 10.2% and 7.6%), the chance of staying in the 1.5% range we have now–let alone reducing it–seems dubious.
Dr. Birx is just wrong. the only model that has decreased anywhere near that is the one Oxford is using–which was adjusted because Boris Johnson basically closed the country a week ago, taking increasing restrictions to their social distancing limits.
Neither Rome nor Canterbury are planning a large Easter service right now. Only one country appears foolish enough to think such might be possible.
(There was a joke thread yesterday that relaxation should come around the time of L’ag Baomer. It’s not a bad call if you’re trying to pick the nearest “major” religious holiday: Easter is too early, Ramadan (23 April) would be borderline at best, but 11-12 May could be good if a lot more testing gets done.)
Thank you for the back story on Dr. Birx. I get that she and Dr. Fauci and even Pence have to tip toe around Trump or they will lose all influence. It is really past time for the GOP to do an intervention so we can approach the crisis with science not the political calculations of a not very bright sociopath.
I observe lockdown in Wisconsin. As far as I can tell, economic anxiety is a lot higher than medical anxiety is. Believe it or not. as we observe lockdown the HR departments of many firms are hard at work (from their homes) firing people. And they aren’t firing 88 year-olds in assisted care facilities mostly. There are desperate folks already and legions of “pre-desperate”. How many people does it take to make these lockdowns fail? Unless authorities can articulate a much easier message like “everyone gets their salary or business income during lockdown + 6 months’ these efforts will erode quickly. Unemployed people – particularly with kids – are going to do whatever they can to replace their full income. That is going to happen. If states are willing to do that they need a much clearer message. Frankly, information about the virus and testing rates is much less important than public health officials think. Everyone has the basics by now: avoid people, wash hands. If me doing your lockdown thing is a big deal for you, show me the money. That’s underway, but I fear it is too complicated a message. Better: hey businesses won’t get a penny of this if they fire people now.