If you open it, they still won’t come: restaurant edition
If you open it, they still won’t come: restaurant edition
In case you haven’t already seen it, here is the OpenTable restaurant reservation data from 3 Confederate States that “reopened” their economy at the end of April:
Even though restaurants were open again, reservations were still down over 80% from a year ago.
This highlights an important behavioral aspect of the pandemic: people did not wait for their State governments to order lockdowns in order to stop face-to-face economic activity. In all States – those that locked down early, late, or not at all – people dramatically slowed down non-“socially distant” participation.
This also explains what we see in the Florida data (which has other issues: e.g., snowbirds who have died in Florida haven’t been counted in its data):
Cases of coronavirus peaked in early April (no later than the 8th), the same week that Florida finally and belatedly went to a Statewide lockdown – I.e., too early for the lockdown to have made the difference.
The evidence is that in general seniors in Florida continue to be seriously concerned about their vulnerability to the virus, and are staying home, regardless of what their governor’s actions.
NDd:
The majority of people in Michigan prefer to wait till the end of May to open up the state. I am hoping people will do the same in Michigan as in Florida with regard to restaurants. The Legislature is majority Republican and they did not but allow Whitmer to extend the stay at home citation and they verbally say it was illegal to say so. In the meantime, we have people wandering around without masks.
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Not mentioned also is that for most of us dining out constitutes “disposable income” i.e. not essential living expenses. People who still have some job security are likely thinking about family and loved ones who don’t. So even if you have the money you are likely to defer splurging on the little extras.
There are huge sectors that this will impact alongside bars/restaurants. Live music, movies, sporting events and even video games etc will likely be crushed for a good while until people can have some breathing room in their financial outlook.
The lack of a unified national policy has basically left it up to governors and that his been compounded by both parties trying to make this a partisan issue. Add to this the fact that the 1% have lost money in the stock market and will lose more if some big companies go bankrupt and you have the absolutely absurd notion that “ liberals” do not want to reopen the economy because a few more old people may die a few months earlier. As I have said many times it is not a choice between controlling the virus or having a good economy—you can not have a good economy without controlling the virus and all the thugs running around with long guns and no masks are simply extending the lousy economy.
Fed Chair Powell: “Almost 40% of those in households making less than $40,000 a year lost a job in March.”
Admittedly not Open Table’s key demographic but that is going to kill a ton of demand in this economy. With or without worrying about how often they disinfect the tables/bathrooms etc.
I find the Open Table data interesting, but how representative is it?
Do people use it when they dine at Applebee’s?
Our family income is over $100K, but I have never used it. We just don’t dine at restaurants where one needs a reservation (or you have to wait). If we can’t walk in and sit down, we don’t go.
Earlier in this epidemic there was a discussion about reopening over at Ars Technica. One comment ended: “You first, Sam Porter Bridges”. I had to look it up. He’s a key character in the game “Death Stranding”.
To what extent does the limited attendance shown in the graph reflect legal restaurant capacity being drastically reduced even if they are now open? (Which is probably not the meaning a lay reader would immediately attach to “open”.)
Run, there’s a fringe in Michigan that seems to be blaming all their troubles on your governor…
Right-wing Facebook groups threaten to assassinate Michigan Governor Whitmer – Threats to assassinate Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer have been widely discussed over the past week within several extreme right-wing Facebook groups. This is occurring in the lead-up to a protest against her “stay home, stay safe” executive order scheduled for Thursday morning in the state capital, Lansing. According to a report on Monday, journalists from the Metro Times gained access to four Facebook groups where these discussions were taking place. The groups, which can be viewed only by approved members, included numerous posts and comments calling for the governor to be beaten, lynched, beheaded or shot. In one such group called “People of Michigan vs. Governor Gretchen Whitmer,” a member posted, “We need a good old fashioned lynch mob to storm the Capitol, drag her tyrannical ass out onto the street and string her up as our forefathers would have.” Another post said, “Drag that tyrant governor out to the front lawn. Fit her for a noose,” to which a user responded, “Either President Trump sends in the troops or there is going to be a midnight lynching in Lansing soon.” One said Whitmer “needs to eat lead,” and that this would send a message to other Democrats “that they are next.” When another user wrote, “She needs her ass beat,” a user responded, “Good ol’ fashioned bullets work better, but I like the enthusiasm.” Another requested, “Can we please just take up a collection for an assassin to put that woman from Michigan down?”
rjs:
I live in Michigan. All of this is on Republicans. All of the armed protests are on Republicans. The latest spike of COVID is on Republicans. And also the piece of white trash in the Oval Office.
Businesses of all types, schools,… facing the same problem. Methinks that new model for restaurant operation will emerge; 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, o’clock dining??
More online? Fewer brick and mortar?
Cal State Universities are going in toto online (except for certain for labs?)
Grades 10-12 some combo for now with migration to online?
K-9, will we, as a people, so risk our offspring?
An acquaintance in Austin TX has just recently reopened one of his two higher end pub/restaurants. The place is at reduced capacity with increased spacing and increased cleaning and disinfecting procedures.
This place was already getting $17 for a plate of fish and chips and about $8 for a well served pint of Guiness. With the reduced revenues and increased expenses I see the experiment being pretty short lived. Prices are either going to have to jump or losses will continue.
Unemployment is high in once booming Austin I don’t see enough people having disposable income for even high end pub food and drink.
One of the higher expenses I expect will come to pass is probably increased security presence. How else to manage the likely disputes over wearing masks, social distancing etc? Texas is a right to carry state. I don’t know how you can manage liability insurance without some capacity to return fire once things get heated.