Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

The oil industry is undergoing a major structural change.

Lifted from comments from this post US to be leading producer of oil is Spencer England’s comment about structural change in the oil markets. Obvious to some but bears repeating for a lot of us, as we discuss environmental issues or gasoline prices in the media more than structural economic impacts: Spencer says: The development […]

US to be leading producer of oil?? What does that mean?

Lifted from a note on energy from Reader rjs comes a link filled narrative on oil and production issues for oil.  He deals with one aspect of drilling for “energy independence”. From reader rjs: Saudi America? The release of this year’s edition of the World Energy Outlook from the IEA (International Energy Agency) received quite a bit […]

Oil prices and consumer spending.

With the recent surge in oil prices I thought it would be useful to look at the potential impact with one set of data I watch. It is energy as a share of personal consumption expenditures or consumer spending. In the 1970s energy consumption rose from about 6% to 9% of spending, or about 50%. […]

The UK faces a serious inflation issue if oil pops!

Bond markets are pricing in rate hikes this year by the ECB and the BoE. Both are inflation targeters, so which one should react first to a possible spike in oil prices? What’s your answer? (1) Neither. As FX appreciation and fiscal austerity pass through to domestic prices, the core will drag down the headline. […]

Democracy, oil, economic recovery…

Prof. Barkley Rosser at Econospeak makes a few observations on the changes in the Middle East as they relate to oil producers. (Dan here…An oil shock in prices of crude oil would be problematic for the economic recovery we all hope for.)

Random Notes toward Progress, Oil, and the post-WW II U.S. Economy

Posted for discussion. First, relating to the discussion in comments to rdan’s TBI post, Annual Change in U.S. output per hour: And, for future discussion, the Relationship between Oil Prices and the Consumer Price Index for the past sixty-plus years.

Why I Don’t Do Market Timing

Starting in September, my income, such as it were, is basically in C$. Stephen Gordon explains, with graphics, why that has been such a bad trade. The scariest part: The 2002-2008 expansion provided significant real income gains, and more than half of those gains were due to the improvement in Canada’s terms of trade. So […]