Real money supply declines sharply; another leading indicator for recession next year Real M1 declined -0.8% in April, and real M2 declined by -0.7%, following March declines of -1.0% for each: These have been the sharpest monthly declines since 2005: Real money supply is a long leading indicator, as shown in the below graph of […]
Initial and continuing jobless claims continue moderating trend Initial jobless claims declined 8,000 to 210,000 last week, continuing above the recent 50+ year low of 166,000 set in March. Meanwhile, the 4-week average rose by another 7,250 to 206,750, compared with the all-time low of 170,500 set seven weeks ago. Continuing claims also rose from […]
Industrial production continues to show excellent growth I call industrial production the King of Coincident Indicators, because it speaks volumes about where the economy is at any particular moment, and empirically is the indicator whose peaks and troughs coincide most definitively with NBER recession dates. In April the story told by industrial production continued to […]
Real retail sales signal further expansion, but also continue to suggest slower payrolls growth ahead Nominal retail sales for the month of April were up 0.9%, and previous months were revised higher. That means that, after inflation, real retail sales for April were up 0.6%, a very positive number. Yesterday I wrote that, rather than […]
Coronavirus dashboard for May 13: the virus will gradually become less lethal – because you can only die once, COVID-19 is still a pandemic and will gradually transition to an endemic. A year ago I thought that between nearly universal vaccinations and an increasing percentage of the population already infected, the virus would wane into […]
This comes by way of New Deal Democrat who was doing some research and ran across a not so recent Krugman article via the late Economist’s View blog. Krugman’s prescient words of things to come? Hat tip to New Deal democrat and a thank you for sending this to me. “The Great Illusion” Paul Krugman, […]
(Dan here) Quoted is a summary and link to New Deal democrat‘s post at XE.com on the pound sterling and Brexit impacting the US economy via Marketwatch: The pound plunged early Friday as results from the U.K.’s referendum hit, but “since then the pound has gone sideways,” notes financial blogger New Deal Democrat in a […]
– by New Deal democrat The new parsimony I came across the below graph showing that relationship of average household net worth with average debt vs. the personal savings rate from the NY Fed last week (h/t The Conversable Economist): The important point was that the relationship has changed since the Great Recession. Even though […]
by New Deal democrat The implications of the child care cost crush for median household income and “shadow unemployment” The other day I showed that there is compelling evidence that the primary reason for the long term decline in the Labor Force Participation Rate in the 25 – 54 age range is the increasing real […]