– by New Deal democrat I don’t have time to write a complete report on the ISM manufacturing index for July, and the construction spending report for June, both of which were reported this morning, so I will do that Monday when the ISM services report also comes out. In the meantime, here is this bullet […]
– by New Deal democrat As usual, the month’s data begins with the ISM manufacturing index, and with a one month delay, construction spending. Because manufacturing is of diminishing importance to the economy, and was in deep contraction both in 2015-16 and again in 2022 without any recession occurring, I now use an economically weighted three […]
– by New Deal democrat I wanted to follow up on a point I made yesterday: although manufacturing is no longer a big enough slice of the US economy to bring about an economic downturn on its own – unless for some reason the manufacturing downturn were unusually severe – when it is paired with […]
– by New Deal democrat As usual we start the month with two important reports on the leading sectors of manufacturing and construction. First, the ISM manufacturing index showed contraction yet again, with the headline number “less negative” by way of increasing from 46.8 to 47.2, and the more leading new orders subindex declining sharply […]
by New Deal democrat The Bonddad Blog A preliminary programming note: In addition to the manufacturing and construction reports, today we also get the JOLTS report for March, and updated motor vehicle sales reports. Yesterday we also got the Employment Cost Index for Q1. I will comment on the JOLTS report later today. I’ll comment on […]
– by New Deal democrat The Bonddad Blog As usual, the new month’s data starts out with information on manufacturing and construction. To repeat what I have said often recently, these are the two sectors I am paying particular attention to for forecasting purposes this year. The ISM manufacturing index has been a good leading […]
– by New Deal democrat The Bonddad Blog As usual, the new month’s data starts out with information on manufacturing and construction. The ISM manufacturing index has been a good leading indicator in that sector for 75 years. The difference over time, especially the last 20 years, is that manufacturing makes up a smaller share […]
Vehicle sales and residential and manufacturing plant construction continue to outweigh general manufacturing downturn – by New Deal democrat No important economic news today, but on Friday in addition to the employment report we did get our typical 1st of the month snapshot of manufacturing, vehicle sales, and construction, so let’s look at each. The ISM […]
Manufacturing and construction sectors continue downward pull on economy – by New Deal democrat As usual, we start the month with new manufacturing and construction data. The ISM manufacturing index goes all the way back to the 1940s, and has been a very good short leading indicator of recession throughout that time (although nothing’s perfect!). […]
February manufacturing and January construction continue negative, while auto sales improve – by New Deal democrat We started out yet another month of data with bad news in two leading sectors. The ISM manufacturing index has been showing contraction since November, and its more leading new orders subindex since September. And did so again in February, […]