– by New Deal democrat Late last year I noticed that the regional Fed manufacturing indicators were improving – despite the “Liberation Day” tariffs and the general chaos coming out of Washington. It appeared that manufacturers had found a modus vivendi and had adapted to the new environment. That subsequently showed up in a number of […]

– by New Deal democrat Just as forecast by the Cleveland Fed, the CPI in May increased 0.5% – less than the increases in March and April, but still too high. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, increased only 0.2%. The YoY% gains both also increased, to 4.2% and 2.8% respectively. to increase to […]

– by New Deal democrat We are – maybe! – finally seeing some of the unresolved post-pandemic seasonality reasserting itself as to initial jobless claims. For the record, initial claims rose 13,000 to 225,000 last week, the highest number since early February. The four week average rose 6,500 to 214,750. With the typical one week delay, […]

 – by New Deal democrat The economically weighted ISM manufacturing + services indexes have become one of my favorite datapoints. That’s in part because the former has a nearly 80 year history of being a solid leading indicator, although somewhat attenuated since the start of the Millennium. But the latter now also has a long […]