Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

Scenes from the June jobs report: a weak but improving economy

– by New Deal democrat There’s no important new economic news today, so let’s take a somewhat deeper dive into last Thursday’s employment report for June. To cut to the chase, this is of a piece of my “Big Picture” narrative from Friday in which I wrote that most of the signals suggest and economy coming […]

June employment report: weakly positive headlines, and important negatives in hours and payrolls

 – by New Deal democrat My Big Theme for the past few months has been that the AI Boom (or possibly bubble) is counterbalancing a stagnant or even shallowly recessionary rest of the economy. After three good reports in a row, the June employment report was very weak, and in some respects even negative. Below […]

Hegseth and Kennedy at the Helm While Trump Lies

This continues to be a nightmare day after day. None of the three forementioned know what they are doing in the positions they have been voted into or appointed. For sure Trump knows nothing about how to be a president and represent the nation. Then there is Pete and Robert. Would Ship of Fools be […]

Courts Block Trump Attack on Mail-in Voting

“A court blocked Trump’s attack on mail voting. But voting advocates aren’t celebrating yet,” Save the Post Office Taking from “Save The Post Office,” Presented by long time acquaintance Steve Hutkins and formerly Mark Jamison. Democracy Docket: President Donald Trump’s attempt to attack mail voting and build a national voter registration list took a major […]

New Deal democrat’s Weekly Indicators: Simply Stellar Consumer Spending June 21 -June 27

Unsurprisingly, the most significant high frequency indicator of the week was the 10% YoY increase in consumer spending as measured by Redbook. Despite all of the chaos and own-goals emanating out of Washington, the economy is incredibly resilient. II continue to worry that nearly the only driving force is what looks like a Bubble in […]

Real personal spending on durable goods rebounds from near recessionary levels, including motor vehicle purchases

 – by New Deal democrat Yesterday we saw a slew of data releases, including durable and core capital goods orders, jobless claims, personal income and spending, and motor vehicle sales. I reported on all but personal spending and motor vehicle sales yesterday. Today let’s take a look at the last two. Let me start with the […]

HHS report admits Trump/GOP policy had already thrown 2.6M off the ACA cliff

“Breaking: HHS report admits Trump/GOP policy had already thrown 2.6M off the ACA cliff as of FEBRUARY, 2026, ACA Signups, Charles Gaba. Some Explanation . . . Some Guy, January 2026: So, what does this mean for monthly effectuated enrollment this year? Well, it’s pretty safe to say that it’s not going to look anything like […]

Jobless claims: seasonality returns, but remains very positive for the economy

 – by New Deal democrat This morning a plethora of economic data was released, including personal spending and income, manuacturers’ new orders, motor vehicle sales, and jobless claims. Since tomorrow sees no significant data releases, I’m going to hold the in-depth look at spending and motor vehicle sales until tomorrow, and update the other releases today. […]

Manufacturing sector continues to be positive through May

 – by New Deal democrat Per my post earlier this morning, I am going to delay until tomorrow reporting on motor vehicle sales and an in-depth look at personal spending, but let’s look at the second significant data release from this morning: manufacturers’ new durable goods orders for May. To cut to the chase, this […]