Bond markets are pricing in rate hikes this year by the ECB and the BoE. Both are inflation targeters, so which one should react first to a possible spike in oil prices? What’s your answer? (1) Neither. As FX appreciation and fiscal austerity pass through to domestic prices, the core will drag down the headline. […]

Ex-food and energy, inflation is at 0.9% for the past twelvemonth. Even if you include those in the longer measure, annual inflation has been 1.7%. (Recall that we paid an average of more than $3.00/gallon for most of the Spring of 2010, for instance.) There is a simple reason “everyone” expected higher numbers: they were […]

Eurointelligence cites a Die Zeit interview (the original interview here) with ECB central bank President Jean-Claude Trichet. Their take on it is quite interesting, which suggests that most are ‘wrong’ about the path of ECB policy. According to Eurointelligence: Central bankers are trained not to say anything of any relevance in long speeches or interviews, […]

The Federal Statistics Office reported that German consumer prices increased 0.2% on a seasonally-adjusted basis in October, translating into a 1.3% annual gain on a harmonized basis. German prices are very sticky, since the domestic economy doesn’t see the boom and bust cyclical behavior like that in other developed economies. However, inflation may headed north, […]

Hat tip Rebecca for this link to the Curious Capitalist Invariably, when we start debating jobs programs and stimulus spending, people start talking about the long-term problem of government spending. It raises our national debt, and could cause inflation down the road. But what is often overlooked when inflation is brought up, is that not […]

The great thing about Accounting Identities is that they must be true. The bad thing about Accounting Identities is that their truth is often trivial. Tim Duy notes the reality: We can’t all be net exporters The Greek crisis…is a reminder that global imbalances are still with us – and, if not corrected, will eventually […]

Today I was thinking about tightening cycles in emerging markets; and more specifically, about that in China. Because let’s face it, China matters. China matters to the rest of Asia via competition for export income. China matters to Europe via competition for jobs. China matters to Brazil via domestic production via imports. China matters. The […]

Marshall Auerback responds to Rebecca’s “I have to side with China on this one”. There’s another factor as well. There’s been an enormous increase in money and credit in the past year. In fact, it seems to be as great as 5 years’ growth in credit in the previous Chinese bubble. What happens is that […]

Brad DeLong’s famous rule (Originally: “If you think Paul Krugman must be wrong, you severely overestimated Niall Ferguson“) needs a corollary. If Olivier Blanchard says your macroeconomic policy doesn’t work, and that you should double your inflation target to make it reasonable, it’s worth trying: The International Monetary Fund’s top economist, Olivier Blanchard, says central […]

Bruce Bartlett: The Fed has talked openly about new procedures to soak up the bank reserves it has created even as those reserves remain largely idle and unlent. You don’t get inflation if there is no money multiplier in play. So long as the banks are just holding the cash, worries about monetary policy leading […]