Intro: Former Biden CEA Chair: Jared Bernstein from his new Econ Site. Right now Jared’s site is opened to all readers with no fees for the site. You may want to take a few moments and read what he has to say on various economic topics while you can, This commentary is on inflation and […]
– by New Deal democrat One of the things I used to harp on was that many forecasters make the mistake of simply taking an existing trend and projecting it forward. Often it is paired with the idea of “all things being equal,” i.e., that there won’t be countertrends in other sectors of the economy. […]
A couple years back, I attended a town hall hosted by my House representative, Gabe Amo. During the Q&A, a gal who I judged to be in her 20s referred to the current economic situation as “hyperinflation.” That was nonsense, of course. Hyperinflation is defined by prices rising ofer 50% monthly. Historic examples of hyperinflation […]
– by New Deal democrat While much of the official government data is still delayed, months after the end of the shutdown, privately sourced data remains fully up to date. And March data started out with the ISM manufacturing index, which was our second piece of (mainly) good news of the morning. The headline ISM number […]
The State of the Union in Numbers. A Quick and Short Review In 2025, the economy expanded as GDP increased, inflation decreased slightly, and the size of imports and exports shifted. These and other measures provide a snapshot of economic activity, prices, and the labor market heading into 2026. How was the economy doing? In 2025, […]
The deluge of data resumes tomorrow with housing permits and starts, industrial production, and durable goods orders. In the meantime, let me make a few “big picture” observations of the economy, and in particular, the short and longer term trends in inflation and interest rates. – by New Deal democrat 1. Short term inflation A very […]
– by New Deal democrat There’s no significant economic news until Wednsday’s jobs report, as to which Scott Bessent gave an interview this morning on CNBC which amounted to, “Don’t Panic!!!” Which I am sure inspires confidence in everybody (I’ve been expecting downward revisions to much of last year as part of the annual benchmarking, so […]
If you’ve noticed you are paying more these days for milk and oranges, Tuesday’s inflation report is unlikely to surprise you. The report shows U.S. inflation cooling slightly in December. But it also demonstrates how the price pressures consumers actually notice with regard to food, energy, commodities other than the former, and services other than services. You have probably […]
A recent piece in the Wall Street Journal . . . Erica York “Do Tariffs Cause Inflation? New Studies Offer Surprising Answer?” The article highlights two economic papers that have found tariffs usually have not led to higher inflation (or only slight pickups), likely because tariffs tend to hurt the economy and reduce demand. If you read my November newsletter, you would not be surprised by those […]
Most of us have read about tariffs and rising prices. Coupled together a piece from The Economist and Robert Reich’s latest. “Trump’s impact on the economy and the nation? The damage from the tariffs that are in place is starting to be felt. The collapse in migration is an enormous and underappreciated shock to the economy. […]