– by New Deal democrat Wow, some actual new economic data on which to report – how refreshing! To be clear, the only reason this was reported is that it was necessary for the calculation of the annual cost of living increases to Social Security checks. Had these been frozen there would have been a “million […]

 – by New Deal democrat The story of this month’s CPI report is summed up in the first few graphs below: the shelter portion of the index continues its slow deceleration, while the non-shelter portion of the index appears to be in a slowly rising trend. This has resulted in headline inflation trending ever so […]

There is little doubt in my mind, inflation will increase. Prices will increase in the name of inflation whether warranted or not. We experienced similar during the Covid epidemic. We also saw companies take advantage of shortages also with price increases which do little to increase supply. This time we have a president in office […]

 – by New Deal democrat The story of consumer prices in May is the same as it has been for the past several months: virtually everything except for shelter costs, and the even more lagging sector of transportation services, were somnolent. If the Fed wanted to, it could have declared victory many months ago. To […]

 – by New Deal democrat The deluge of new monthly data starts tomorrow. Today there’s no significant data, so let me follow up on a point from Friday’s personal income and spending report. I never look to see what others are saying before I finish my own analysis, because I want to be as unbiased as […]

The 2024 election was, to some extent, a referendum on inflation. Voters were mad about higher prices, and they vented their wrath on the Democrats.   Was that fair?  USA TODAY asked economists to ascribe blame for the historic run of inflation, which reached a 40-year peak in mid-2022. Inflation has cooled since then, to an annual rate of […]

Inflation was caused by Wall Street and companies rent-taking by increasing prices because they could do so by manipulating the supply chain. I started working is Supply Chain in the seventies for a small company by the name of Baxter Travenol. It was smaller then. It was in the old Walgreen’s building before it moved […]

– by New Deal democrat Today’s CPI report for September came in almost exactly as I suggested it would in my preview yesterday. To wit:  – Headline CPI continued increased 0.2% for the month, and decelerated to 2.4% YoY, its best showing since February of 2021.   – On a 3 month annualized basis, prices are […]

 I have my usual thoughts about inflation. People confuse levels and changes. I think this is a fundamental cognitive illusion. I think perceived inflation and the perceived effect of inflation on real incomes are based on an impressive pair of errors. 1) people estimate inflation from the price level comparing current prices to prices they […]

Post-June FOMC: By Overreacting Hawkishly, the Fed Risks Being Behind the Ball by Preston Mui employ america org The simple fact as seen in a longer-run view, inflation has fallen greatly. Whether you start from its peak at 5.6% in February 2022 or 4.2% when the Fed raised rates to the current level, core PCE inflation—which […]