Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

The Stockman’s Big Swinging Whip

by reader Matthew McCosker I can credit two sources that have shaped my thinking on both economics, politics (I am quite apolitical these days), and finance. One is the Angry Bear blog, and the second is Warren Mosler.On the bus this morning, I was glued to a post at Warren Mosler’s blog, where he responds […]

Euro Area Inflation: A Very Slow Burn

by Rebecca Wilder Euro Area Inflation: A Very Slow Burn Euro area consumer prices increased at a 2.4% annual pace in May, down 0.2 ppt from the 2.6% pace in April. Core inflation fell to 1.8% in May from 1.9% in April. Headline and core inflation peaked in the fourth quarter of 2011, and disinflation […]

A Different Look at GDP and Inflation

At Illusion of Prosperity, Stagflationary Mark posted this scatter-graph of quarterly GDP YoY growth and CPI data from Q1, 1948 through Q4, 2011.  Each point represents the differences from the medians of each data set for each of the variables, respectively.  This gives you a picture of time spent above and below what might be […]

Goldbugs and inflation

by Mike Kimel Howard Hill on has been arguing with gold bugs: I know that some readers are going to say “Wait. The gold market is saying inflation, not deflation.” That’s not how I see it. I see the negative real rate on cash parked in T-bills (three month yield 0%, 12 month yield 0.08%) […]

Euro area inflation: gaining momentum below the hood

Today Eurostat released April 2011 inflation for the Euro area. Prices are increasing at a 2.8% annual pace, up from 2.7% in March and very much above the ECB’s comfort zone of around but slightly below 2%. Today’s report is the second release and includes the cross section of price gains below the headline number. […]

It’s pretty obvious how China can achieve its top economic priority of price stability

Premier Wen Jiabao made stabilizing prices China’s top economic priority for 2011. Amid the surge in world energy costs, this story didn’t make the front page. However, Chinese policymakers did take their time spent out of the limelight to allow the Chinese yuan to appreciate roughly 0.3% against the US dollar. Chinese inflation is elevated […]

Evidence says the ECB is overreacting

Earlier this week I argued that the ECB’s inflation target of just below 2% is too simplistic, especially during periods of supply-side price shocks: energy, food, VAT hikes. Here’s a menu of reactions to the ECB’s announced rate hike (Trichet used the phrase ‘strong vigilance’, which historically is a leading indicator of a rate hike […]