Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

Maybe Bristol Palin is Right

No, not that anyone should pay her $15,000-$30,000 to talk to teenagers about why they should be abstinent. (Short version: “As with my mother, I wasn’t, and look what I’m doing now. Uh, well…”) But, via Andrew Samwick, a study from the Pew Foundation (PDF) using PSID data finds that: Among children who start in […]

Recovery? or We’re Gonna Need a Bigger Stimulus?

Sometimes, I hate being right. Most of those times are when I take a pessimistic view of data; this has happened a lot recently. It gets worse when the people who agree with you are none other than The Giant Vampire Squid. As the Wall Street Journal notes: Zero — First quarter GDP growth, minus […]

An auspicious sign: the consumer (for now) is back

I remain very skeptical about the sustainability of the recovery, as the labor market is in shambles and nominal wage growth is unlikely to facilitate “healthy” deleveraging – please see this recent post “Reducing household financial leverage: the easy way and the hard way”. I digress; because you can’t fight the data. And for now, […]

It Takes Two to Tango: A Look at the Numerator AND Denominator

This is a guest contribution by Marshall Auerback, Braintruster at the New Deal 2.0 by Marshall Auerback A new book by Kenneth Rogoff and Carmen Reinhart, “This Time It’s Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Follies”, has occasioned much comment in the press and blogosphere (see here and here) The book purports to show that once […]

Japan – GDP – exports – manufacturing – autos – Toyota

Forget the Eurozone for just a minute. Japan’s problems are big: Toyota is a major exporter/employer. Last year 48% of all new standard passenger vehicles sold in Japan were Toyota (or its Lexus brand). The WSJ article describes Toyota’s status in Japan as the following: In short, Toyota is to Japan what General Motors Corp., […]

Consumers around the world are generally more upbeat, but not uniformly so

Last week the IMF released its World Economic Outlook Update for the October 2009 forecast. The global economy is expected to grow 3.9% in 2010, an 0.8% upward revision. In fact, the 2010 growth projections were generally upward with little offset in 2011 (often when you get a surprise and positive economic release, the current […]

Those Low Rates

Via (what else?) Alea’s Twitter feed, John Taylor defends himself against Ben Bernanke: “The evidence is overwhelming that those low interest rates were not only unusually low but they logically were a factor in the housing boom and therefore ultimately the bust,” Taylor, a Stanford University economist, said in an interview today in Atlanta. It’s […]

What a Group to be In

Per the Health at a Glance Chart Set, Powerpoint, available here: All OECD countries have achieved universal or near-universal health care coverage, except Turkey, Mexico and the United States And it’s even more impressive when you go to Slide 36 (whose header is quoted above) and realise that the Public Coverage in those three states […]

Government Site to Check

Mish sends us to “Track the Money,” recovery.gov’s breakdown of where funds have been sent and spent. He’s not happy, but I suspect he’s suffering the Jared Bernstein Problem: only looking at one side of the equation. But—and this is the key “but”—the reason it is right to do that is that ARRA money has […]