Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

Has America Lost It’s Drive? – Pt. 4

In Part 3 of this series, I wondered a couple of things.  – With the vehicle/1000 people number in the range of 825 to 845 since 2004, is the market near saturation?– Is the January sales number of 14.2 SAAR (seasonally adjusted at annual rate) enough to maintain the vehicle/1000 people number? For the first […]

Is America Losing Its Drive? – Pt. 3 Vehicles per 1000 Persons

In private communication, Roger Chittum got me thinking about the vehicle component of gasoline consumption. I’m going focus on the gross vehicle numbers, and not get too deeply into the car/truck/SUV product mix detail.   Data is from the Department of Energy TRANSPORTATION ENERGY DATA BOOK: EDITION 30—2011.   (Warning:  414 page pdf.) According to Table 3-5 […]

Has America Lost its Drive? Part 2

I made a mistake in my original post.   Graph 4 in that post was based on the wrong data set.  As Roger Chittum pointed out in comments, that graph only covers a subset of total gasoline deliveries. This is the correct graph.  (Source.)  Thanks, Roger! Graph 1 Gasoline Supplied The fall off in gasoline delivery […]

Has America Lost its Drive?

Yesterday,  Karl Smith posted on Oil and the Structural Recession.  This seems to be one of Karl’s thinking-out-loud posts, with more questions than answers, some convoluted reasoning, and a conclusion that higher gasoline prices are in our future.  If I read him right, this will be due to a demand pull. He included this graph […]

Japan – GDP – exports – manufacturing – autos – Toyota

Forget the Eurozone for just a minute. Japan’s problems are big: Toyota is a major exporter/employer. Last year 48% of all new standard passenger vehicles sold in Japan were Toyota (or its Lexus brand). The WSJ article describes Toyota’s status in Japan as the following: In short, Toyota is to Japan what General Motors Corp., […]

July Auto Sales

By Spencer, July auto and light truck sales are being reported at 11.2 million annual rate. That is a very significant increase from the second quarter average of 9.5 million and implies that consumption in the third quarter GDP data will be up significantly. I do not have detailed data of how much of this […]

I Do Not Think These Words Mean What the Reporter Thinks They Do, Auto Sales Version

Via Dr. Black, this piece yields preciousness: “You have to stay on top of your game,” said Sklar, 65, a straight-talker who wears cuff links to work and has managed sales crews for a quarter-century. “You have to maximize your opportunities. You have to do what you have to do to make a deal.” [emphasis […]