Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

The contradictory signs from initial and continuing jobless claims: what do they mean?

– by New Deal democrat As I wrote earlier this week, the positive trend in initial jobless claims is one of the most important data points indicating there is no imminent threat of recession. That continues, but what is increasingly disconcerting is the completely contrary signal from continuing claims. Let’s deal with the weekly numbers first. […]

The Future of the Trump Economy

I pulled this segment from a much longer commentary on PIIE. It was too long to post on Angry Bear. As it is, this segment is longer than what I wanted to post. A key to the commentary at PIIE by Oliver Blanchard is it was written in November 2024.The nation and Tr__p administration supported […]

Threatening the Fed

We made it out of a pandemic, a potential recession, and other issues which threatened the nation with Fed Chief/Chair Jerome Powell guiding the nation’s financial stability. The Fed did implement several policies to stabilize the financial system and support the flow of credit to households, businesses, and state and local governments at the onset […]

One Senator says he’ll make sure Medicaid cuts Never Occur

If you believe Senator Josh, I have a bridge to sell you. The solution to the Pres is for all of the senators to band together and tell Herr Tr__p no more. Doing things after you vote is just another way of saying, “oh well, the majority beat me.” No character today, just followers, Sen. […]

Economically weighted ISM manufacturing + services indexes continue to warrant “recession watch”

– by New Deal democrat Last month the new orders components of the economically weighted ISM manufacturing and services indexes warranted the hoisting of a yellow flag “Recession Watch.”  This month that continued. To recap, because manufacturing is much less important to the economy than in the decades before the Millennium, the economically weighted average of the […]

Successful in a Primary? Don’t expect the Right Wingers Will Let you Pass . . .

Bit of a rewrite . . . Democratic socialist who would become the first Muslim to be NYC mayor if elected. He first has to get past the right-wingers who have come out of hiding since Zohran Mamdani’s success in the Democratic primary for New York City mayor. Being a Democrat is one thing. Being […]

Why Hundreds of Farmworkers Suddenly Vanished, Leaving Crops to Rot

It appears some bad times are coming for the United States. We are attacking the Labor that will do the jobs legal US Citizens will not do for the money paid to illegals and legal immigrants. “Ghost Farms of Texas: Why Hundreds of Farmworkers Suddenly Vanished, Leaving Crops to Rot” This sudden, unexplained exodus has […]

“The Current Iran War will Likely end soon, but the Arms Race will Heat Up”

“The Current Iran War will Likely end soon, but the Arms Race will Heat Up” Juan Cole, Ann Arbor (Informed Comment). The Al Jazeera bureau chief in Tehran, Abdul Qader Fayez, reports from “informed sources” in Tehran that Iran’s clerical Leader, Ali Khamenei, and his National Security Council have still not decided how to respond to the […]

New ACIP Vaccine Board Selected

A rather interesting selection of members for the ACIP Board for Covid. Some are anti-vaxers. There are questions about anti-vaxers being on the board and a resistance to new vaccines. Others believe they may lack enough experience. “what they lack (it seems to me) is the kind of expertise or experience in vaccines that was […]

House Bill and Healthcare

One of the programs in play is reductions in Medicaid and Market Place provisions to pay for the tax breaks to a few. Cutting these programs will result in higher deficits also. Reductions in Medicaid and Marketplace provisions will reduce the roughly $1 trillion in ten-year federal savings these provisions generate thereby magnifying the beautiful […]