…the index, which is now -5% below its recent peak (via Advisor Perspectives): (Don’t know why the December level is labeled 97.9%. I have verified that the Index has indeed…

…for November showed continued declines from their seasonally adjusted June 2022 peak, and also continued to decline sharply from their YoY growth peak, presaging a similar decline in CPI for…

…occurring. Manufacturing production has turned down slightly in the past several months. The average manufacturing work week has also declined sharply enough from its peak to be consistent with a…

…of magnitude: the job openings data point to a far tighter labor market. The ratio of job openings to unemployed is now 1.90, far above its pre-pandemic peak of 1.24….

…million permits annualized and 1.321 starts will be the low for this cycle. That’s because mortgage interest rates (red, inverted), which along with Treasury yields frequently peak before the Fed…

…below: As a result, industrial production (blue below) is now -1.8% below its September peak, while manufacturing production (red) is -2.0% below its peak from last April: With the exception…

…Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (GSCPI). The GSCPI’s purpose was to “capture supply chain disruptions using a range of indicators,” to measure standard deviations from the historical mean. It peaked…

…the Mid Carolina Parcel Support Annex (PSA) on Continental Boulevard Like other peak season annexes, the Mid Carolina PSA apparently has a two-year lease that runs to the summer of…

…– that has not retreated from their best level. Aside from jobless claims, the only other short leading indicator showing signs of life is stock prices as measured by the…

…the housing sales market is in. Remember that sales follow interest rates, and in particular mortgage rates, which peaked last October and November. Below is a the latest update of…