…from their recent high in January: Note that industrial production, perhaps the most important coincident indicator, remains down about -0.5% from its September peak. On a YoY basis, real personal…

…have been in food (13.5% weighting of the total, unchanged in the last 2 months but up 7.7% YoY, down from a peak of 11.3% last August); new cars (4.2%…

…lower than their peak half a year ago. While single family units under construction did decline by -10,000, that was more than offset by the continued rise, by 16,000, in…

…corresponded with peaks and troughs in economic activity as determined by the NBER. The news for total production was not good, as it declined -0.2% in May, and March and…

…declined -0.4% for the month, and is down -0.9% since its recent peak in January. Finally, the personal savings rate increased 0.3% to 4.6%, tied for an 18 month high…

…1946 to a peak of 3.8 percent of GDP in 1970. This 2.5 percentage point increase in spending was to accommodate baby boomers’ needs when they were kids. The 2.5%,…

…unaffordable levels with a doubling of interest rates from 3% to over 6%, sales are going to suffer pretty drastically. And they have, declining over 35% from peak to new…

…below their recent January peak: Finally, note that almost all of the good news reported above had to do with “real” i.e., inflation adjusted metrics. The good news was greatly…

…peak). In June, the FHFA (red) reported that existing house prices increased 0.3%, the 10th seasonally adjusted increase in a row: YoY prices are 3.1% higher as measured by that…

…market, with sales down 40% from their peak over a year ago. This is also going to worsen the new home market, which has held up better until now due…