…June 2022, when gas prices peaked at $5. Real personal spending rose 0.1%, while real personal income rounded to unchanged in August, as shown in the below graph in which…

…production’s most recent prior peak last September: On a YoY basis, industrial production is only up 0.1%, while manufacturing production is *down* -0.8%: In the past, this would have almost…

…6 months after permits, units under construction did not peak until a full year later, and even now are only down 2% from that peak. The bottom line is that…

…construction did not peak until July 2008, more than *2 years* after the peak in multi-family permits in March 2006. Similarly, the three month average of multi-family permits peaked in…

…i.e., ever since the gas price peak of June 2022 passed out of the YoY comparisons. “Core” inflation ex-food and energy also increased 0.3%, and was up 3.9% YoY, the…

…the rise in interest rates in late 2023 discussed above, new home sales (blue) have already turned down (their 3 month average is down -7.5% from last spring’s peak), suggesting…

…this most important housing report with little difficulty. Mortgage rates have declined about 1% from their peak during the autumn, and are about equal to where they were one year…

…which will probably resolve. Meanwhile industrial production, one of the most important coincident indicators, also declined, by -0.1%, and is down -0.9% from its September 2022 peak. Manufacturing production declined…

…households . . . . We recommend taking the February 2020 value as the peak for 2020 for practical purposes. . . . . The index reached a post-Covid minimum…

…levels.  Last week I discussed industrial production (not shown), which peaked in late 2022 and has continued to trend sideways to slightly negative right through February. A very good harbinger…