Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

New and continuing jobless claims remain near historic lows

 – by New Deal democrat Along with the weekly update of retail sals, new jobless claims continue to be the most positive economic data in the entire specturm. Last week new cliams increased 5,000 to 210,000, which is about average for the entire post-pandemic period. The only other time they were this low was 2018-19, […]

What are the Economic risks with Iran?

About a seven-minute read: Gasoline prices in AZ, (in the part where I live) as of late March 2026, are high. They average around $4.21 per gallon for regular, with some locations exceeding $4.39. Prices have surged significantly, following broader metro Phoenix trends, with options ranging from $4.159 at Circle K and QuikTrip to higher […]

Updating the K.I.S.S. estimate of the coming shock in CPI

 – by New Deal democrat There’s no big economic data today, so let me update something I posted last week, in which I warned readers to expect a shock in the next CPI report.  I wrote that “based on past history and using conservative assumptions, the model forecasts a 1.8% increase in CPI between March and […]

water security and food production

In Arizona, we are starting to see many proposals for data centers, Chip, etc. and similar manufacturers. It is interesting as there is a lot of obvious large building going on in Arizona. I would not think there is a lot of natural resource available to sustain the type of industry coming to Arizona. It […]

Paul Ehrlich and me

Stanford biologist Paul Ehrlich died on March 13th. His 1968 book “The Population Bomb” was both influential and controversial in its time and has proven to be better fiction than science since then. I was required to read The Population Bomb in college. I recall being beguiled by its arguments and probably too by the […]

The bond market sends an unprecedented message

 – by New Deal democrat Something not just unusual, but unprecedented has happened in the bond market this year. Normally, when an inverted yield curve (where earlier maturing bonds yield more than later maturing ones) regularizes, or un-inverts (where yields get higher the later the maturing), it is because the Fed has lowered rates sufficiently […]

Workers Looking for Better Jobs During a Bad Market

Changing jobs for better conditions and pay become more of a danger during a poor economy. It is not a good time to be looking for a better job. Indeed, doing so may put your present job in danger if management finds out. Best bet is to hunker down for the time being. Been there […]

Construction spending in January declined, manufacturing construction tanked; but the AI data center Boom continued

 – by New Deal democrat This morning the construction spending report for January was released (note that this is still about 3 weeks later than usual, so last autumn’s government shutdown continues to reverberate in the data). In the past I have used it to help track the long leading sector of housing, but in the […]

Healthcare in the United States

Some rather easy facts and numbers to understand what is going on in healthcare. The data and graphs originate from USA Facts. USA Facts makes government data easier to access and understand. as the assert, “we don’t tell you what to think. We give you what you need to make informed decisions.” Three topics are […]