Economically weighted ISM indexes for February indicate continued slow growth – by New Deal democrat Because manufacturing is now of much less importance to the economy than in the decades before the Millennium, I now use a weighted average of the ISM services index (75%) as well as manufacturing (25%) as the primary forecasting tool. […]
Trust is sine qua non in a democracy. Citizens simply must trust that those in power will follow the law. When that trust breaks down, it leads to assassinations, coups and civil war. The idea that the SCOTUS is the final arbiter of what is and isn’t legal is based on nothing in the Constitution. […]
Economist Claudia Sahm believes there is little or an unlikely chance of a recession due to “DOGE” efforts. The magnitude of the layoffs, let-goes, retirements, etc. are not enough to bring on a recession. After reading this I am beginning to think, this is more of a scare tactic by Musk and Trump (he would […]
The threats of tariffs and trade wars by Trump appears to have had an impact on the US economy. Moreso than the countries he has been threatening. If they call his bluff, the US population will pay for his malfeasance. Maybe this is what Trump wanted? As reported at Quartz “The stock market’s Trump bump […]
– by New Deal democrat There’s no important economic data today, so this is a good time to write about several important developments in the stock and bond markets. First of all, as many of you may already know, a portion of the US Treasury yield curve, between the 10 year and 3 month Treasuries, re-inverted […]
According to Yahoo Finance, the stock market has wiped out all the gains since Trump’s inauguration. Of course, the stock market isn’t the economy. What does the Atlanta fed project for GDP growth? Not good. Unless you’re Vladimir Putin. Or work for him. https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow
In 2023, approximately one-fifth of the workforce was foreign-born. Of the 160.2 million people in the US workforce, and again about 29.7 million were immigrants. This is an increase from 2010 when the immigrant portions was an approximate 15.6% of the workforce. Immigrants can be employed across different industries. However, there is concentrations of immigrants […]
I watched a Nova show titled: Baltimore Bridge Collapse It got me wondering: What Ifs? The specifics I mention regarding the bridge come from this show and this Wikipedia article. We have all been hearing and asking, “what if there is another pandemic”. With the personnel/financial cuts and head of agency changes the current Republican […]
AB: I apologize as this is way too brief. Women should have and need the right to decide what is correct for themselves without dictates by outside influences. It appears the outside influences want control of the rights of women to decide and are willing to punish them for exercising that right. There’s a new […]
– by New Deal democrat Although manufacturing is of diminishing importance to the economy, (it was in deep contraction both in 2015-16 and again in 2022 without any recession), the ISM manufacturing index remains an important indicator with a 75+ year history of accurately describing that sector and forecasting it over the short term. Any […]