Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

Tariff-palooza! Implodes – for now; but is it already too late?

 – by New Deal democrat Let me start this post by picking up where I left off yesterday. In yesterday’s post I suggested that an absolute YoY decline in intermodal rail freight might well show up in this morning’s report from the AAR. And as the below chart shows, that’s exactly what happened, with intermodal traffic […]

The Loss of Starlink Satellites in February 2022

I did a deeper investigation to get to the source of the reported loss on numerous Starlink satellites launched by Elon Musk. As reported on 3 February 2022, SpaceX launched 49 Starlink satellites, 38 of which unexpectedly deorbited. The deorbiting of the satellites was blamed on space weather. A bit of explanation on Space weather: […]

Buh-bye, Elon

So Elon is headed back to the private sector after a star turn as chainsaw-in-chief and co-president. How did that work out, anyway? “Musk’s original goal was $2 trillion in annual savings, downsized several times to the range of $500 billion. DOGE currently claims $175 billion in savings. But the House bill would formalize barely […]

Jobless claims: unresolved post-pandemic seasonality appears once again

 – by New Deal democrat One of the main reasons I include the last two years when I write about initial and continued jobless claims is that a distinct unresolved post-pandemic seasonality has developed. Even after seasonal adjustment, claims have tended to rise in the late spring towards the summer, and then decline beginning in late […]

RFK Jr and the clock that strikes 13

One of my favorite aphorisms, for which I haven’t located the source, is: “There’s something about the sound of a clock striking 13 that calls into doubt everything that came before.” That came to mind when I read about RFK Jr’s “Make America Healthy Again” report: “ The Washington Post reported, “Some of the report’s […]

Updating the status of tariff-palooza!

 – by New Deal democrat There’s no significant new economic data today, so let’s take an updated look at the downstream effects on the supply chain and retail sales so far from T—-p’s tariffs. To begin with, at least some of the tariffs are indeed in effect. Here is a graph from Ben Casselman of The […]

Medicare Advantage (MA) plans overpaid by 22 to 39 percent

A Brief designed explanation taken from the Center for American Progress commentary and analysis. It finds Medicare Advantage (MA) plans are overpaid by 22 to 39 percent. Instead of overpaying Medicare Advantage the curbing of MA overpayments should be used to improve the Medicare program for all beneficiaries. This is nothing new and I have […]

A Couple of Economist Views on Tariffs

First, my opinion. If anybody thinks this is not holding Trade with the US hostage until the other country concedes, they are crazy. Trump is obviously flexing our muscle to gain political advantage and a venue in which to brag. The only thing a tariff will do is protect an industry for a short period […]

The art of the fake deal

The latest meme around the Trump tariffs is TACO: Trump Always Chickens Out. Savvy traders are buying on the TACO tariff dips and selling on the TACO caves. And those caves are popular. “Yesterday, the Conference Board reported that in May consumer confidence surged by 12.3, the largest monthly increase in four years. Bloomberg said […]