Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

Trump lies about trade

“As Trump passed the 100-day mark in office last week, the White House touted a growing list of more than 50 announcements by private companies since Jan. 20 to invest more than $5 trillion in the United States. Trump boasted about them Tuesday during an Oval Office meeting with the new Canadian prime minister. “The […]

ICE Mortgage Monitor: Home Prices Continue to Cool

As presented: – by Bill McBride CalculatedRisk Newsletter Here is the ICE April Mortgage Monitor report (pdf). Press Release: ICE Mortgage Monitor: First-Time Homebuyers Comprise Record Share of Agency Purchase Lending in Q1 2025 Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. … today released its May 2025 Mortgage Monitor Report, which delves into the rising share of first-time and Gen Z homebuyer […]

Consumers continue to front-run tariffs, now with an energy tailwind

 – by New Deal democrat Back in March I took a look at how producers and consumers reacted to periods of high political policy uncertainty, concluding that usually in the past consumers had reacted first, somewhere between almost simultaneously to with a one quarter delay, and producers reacted afterward to the downturn in demand by cutting back […]

State Contributions to Federal Revenue

“Which states contribute the most and least to federal revenue?” USAFacts All states—and their taxpayers—send money to federal coffers. The government distributes much of this back to states, but some receive more money than they contributed. This shapes how money flows through Social Security, Medicaid, and infrastructure projects nationwide.   Source: IRS, USASpending.gov – Get the data – […]

The economics of national security

I see where Trump has tweeted on his Twitter knock-off Pravda Social that the number of foreign-made films imported to the US is a “national security threat.” He wants to use this as an excuse to impose a 100% tariff on foreign flicks. This elasticity in the definition of “national security” could be made to […]

Economically weighted ISM averages continued slow deceleration in April despite rebound in Services

– by New Deal democrat Because manufacturing is much less important to the economy than in the decades before the Millennium, the economically weighted average of the ISM services index (75%) as well as manufacturing (25%), especially over a three month period, has been much more accurate since 2000. In April the important aspects of the […]

No High Speed Trains in America Yet

Shanghai, China uses Electromagnetic Suspension (EMS) for levitation and propulsion. EMS uses the attractive force between electromagnets on the vehicle and a conductive track on the guideway to levitate the train and maintain a constant gap while travelling at high speed. The train is equipped with powerful electromagnets. I pulled this picture of a train […]

New Deal democrats Weekly Indicators for April 28 – May 2

 –by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha. Aside from the declines in the April regional Fed reports of general business conditions, there has been no significant fallout in the high frequency data from the tariff trade wars – at least, not yet. As usual, clicking over and reading will bring […]