While I was away . . . Personal income and spending for September Real personal spending increased +0.3% in September, while real income increased less than 0.1%, rounding to unchanged: Since May 2021, after the last round of pandemic stimulus expired, real spending is up 3.3%; but real income is down -2.0%: Real personal spending […]
Weekly Indicators for October 24 – 28 at Seeking Alpha – by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators Post is up at Seeking Alpha. Slowly even more indicators are deteriorating in several timeframes. As usual, clicking over and reading will bring you up to date on the economy, and bring me a little reward for my […]
“A global house-price slump is coming,” The Economist, edited. I find this article to be interesting although I do not agree with much of it. Prices are an issue; but so are interest rates. Much of the costs of housing can also be from house manufacturing waste. I was watching my new home being built. […]
Q3 GDP: good news for now, bad news for the future – by New Deal democrat I have to keep this note brief, since I am on the road. As you presumably already know, real GDP was positive for the Third Quarter, up 2.6% at an annual rate: Subject to revisions in the next several […]
Seems that gas, fuel, gasoline is being used as a marker to understand just how horrible we have it as a result of the current inflation. It’s just sooooooooooo terrible. I’ll just say this. As a marker of inflation and our personal economic experience all it shows is how terrible we are at remembering. Unfortunately […]
The Treasury yield curve has now almost totally inverted – by New Deal democrat One of the few leading indicators not flashing red for recession has been the short end of the Treasury yield curve, which has been relentlessly positive – until now. While the 10 year minus 2 year Treasury spread has been negative […]
The tide has now turned as to house prices Last month I wrote that the FHFA showed evidence that house prices had peaked, and that “since the FHFA has a tendency to turn slightly ahead of the Case Shiller index, this strongly suggests that a sharp deceleration in the Case Shiller index YoY will start […]
When will housing construction turn down? A fuller consideration – by New Deal democrat No important economic news today. Also I am traveling this week, so there might be some light posting, as in, I might skip a day or two. But I very much want to see what is happening with house prices, which […]
Weekly Indicators for October 17 – 21 at Seeking Alpha My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. If you thought the long leading indicators couldn’t get any worse – well, they could. As usual, clicking over and reading will bring you up to the virtual moment as to how the economy is doing right […]
If GOP Wins Either House Of Congress, Dems Must Kill Debt Ceiling If it comes to pass and especially if the GOP takes both houses, presumably Democrats will be able to kill the debt ceiling in the lame duck session. This assumes Manchin and Sinema stick with them on it, which one of them might […]