Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

Trade with Mexico and Canada

As one commenter to this post (23 cars and trucks said) said: It is only for cars meeting the requirements of USMCA like having 75% of the parts sourced from North America. U.S. goods and services trade with USMCA totaled an estimated $1.8 trillion in 2022. Exports were $789.7 billion; imports were $974.3 billion. The […]

February JOLTS report: “soft landing” so far, but indications of further weakness ahead

– by New Deal democrat  Along with all the other reports, yesterday the JOLTS survey was updated for February. This survey decomposes the employment market into openings, hires, quits, and layoffs, and so gives a more granular view. The question over the past year has been whether they best describe a “soft landing,” or “hard” […]

Cars and Trucks Made in Mexico, Canada, and China

Just some thoughts on manufacturing and international trade I have seen and experienced over the decades. I worked in automotive (care and trucks) for the Tier1s supplying wire harnesses and other components to Chrysler, Ford, and GM. The company also did business with foreign car manufacturers. This particular company was Japanese. US components were shipped […]

Unemployment Programs Provided Vital Support to Workers and the Economy During Pandemic

I wish I could put the entire article up; but then you would probably not read it. I did quite a bit of editing to get this article to the point of establishing what the Gov did during the pandemic concerning unemployment. Much of which was done during Joe Biden’s presidency. Besides showing the first […]

manufacturing and construction are almost right at the juncture between expansion and contraction

February construction spending: nominal vs. real makes all the difference  – by New Deal democrat Since the turn of the Millennium, a downturn in manufacturing has not been enough to tip the economy into recession. There must also be a decline in construction as well. This morning’s construction spending report for February painted a substantially […]

Rural Schools and Balancing Uncertain Budgets

Arizona is among the states where K-12 public schools rely on federal funding, according to the Pew Research Center. During fiscal year 2022, 19.7% of Arizona school funding came from the federal government, according to the center. Arizona ranks in the bottom 25% of schools for quality of education. Underpaid teachers is one issue. Yet, AZ […]

Heavy truck sales warrant a yellow caution flag

 – by New Deal democrat After this morning’s contractionary ISM manufacturing report, it occurred to me to look at heavy truck sales to see if they confirmed the downturn. They did, but like the manufacturing index.  Heavy Truck versus Light Trucks. Which models are they? Heavy Trucks are 14000 lbs+ or class 4. While passenger […]

Manufacturing Index returns to Contraction

ISM manufacturing index returns to contraction as the front-running of tariffs has ended  – by New Deal democrat [Note: I’ll report separately on construction spending, also released this morning] Although manufacturing is of diminishing importance to the economy, (it was in deep contraction both in 2015-16 and again in 2022 without any recession), the ISM manufacturing […]

How to make money while losing money

“Newsmax raised $75 million in its IPO Friday, with shares priced at $10. Newsmax’s rapid ascent in its first two days of trading pushed the company’s market cap to $16.7 billion. Shares traded around $190 early Tuesday.” Sounds great, right? But scroll down a bit: “The company is facing an ongoing lawsuit from Dominion Voting […]