September existing home sales and prices decline – by New Deal democrat With the exception of their big impact on prices, I do not particularly pay attention to existing home sales. Their economic impact is small compared with the construction of new homes which may have spearheaded by companies like that New Home Builder in […]
Jobless claims flat for the moment – by New Deal democrat There’s no big news in the jobless claims release this week. Initial claims fell -12,000 to 214,000, but the 4 week average increased 1,250 to 212,250. Continuing claims, which lag somewhat, increased 21,000 to 1,385,000: To the extent there is any discernible trend, I […]
With regard to the Albertson – Kroger merger. CEPR’s Eileen Appelbaum discusses a private equity profit scheme involving the Kroger/Albertsons grocery megamerger. Albertsons will pay out about a third of its market value to its former private equity owners and investors in November as part of the merger with Kroger. The large payment sets up […]
Housing on track for an early 2023 recession, but with a major caveat – by New Deal democrat I don’t think anybody was expecting a good housing construction report this month. Those non-expectations were certainly fulfilled. Housing permits rose slightly, 1.4%, from last month’s 2 year low. Single family permits, which contain even more signal, […]
September industrial production comes in very strong – by New Deal democrat September’s industrial production report puts the final nail in the coffin in the notion that the US is already in recession. I call industrial production the King of Coincident Indicators because, more than any other single metric, it coincides with the peaks and […]
The “Consumer nowcast” recession warning is triggered, as real wages decline, real aggregate payrolls near stall, plus record mortgage payments – by New Deal democrat No economic news today. So, now that we have the September inflation read, let’s take a look at a couple of important consumer indicators: real average wages, and real aggregate […]
plan to force Democrats to make concessions which would almost certainly include cuts to Social Security and Medicare
Weekly Indicators for October 10 – 14 at Seeking Alpha – by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. Just about everything looks awful. And one bright spot, consumer spending as measured by Redbook, just got dimmer. Needless to say, if consumer spending rolls over, that’s pretty much the ball game.. You […]
September real retail sales lay another egg – by New Deal democrat One of my favorite indicators, retail sales, was reported for September this morning, and it came in unchanged. Which means that after factoring in +0.4% inflation in September, real retail sales were down -0.4%. Which is not good, because real retail sales have […]
“Initial claims continue to rise along with gas prices“ – by New Deal democrat Last week I wrote that initial jobless claims may have ended their recent downtrend. This week appears to have confirmed that. Initial claims rose 9,000 to 228,000, and the 4 week average rose 5,000 to 211,500. Continuing claims, which lag somewhat, […]