Monetary Sovereignty, Sanctions and Russian Economic Policy The central role of economic sanctions in the US/EU strategy against Russia has returned international political economy to the center stage if it had ever left it. Here are some thoughts occasioned by Adam Tooze’s interesting analysis of Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) as perceived by the Russian economic policy apparatus, […]
February car sales decline, but truck sales continue rebound; plus a comment about the urgency of dealing with supply chain issues I used to follow vehicle sales more closely – until the vehicle manufacturers, one by one, stopped reporting monthly, and only updated quarterly for the previous quarter. While this makes the data less timely […]
Manufacturing continues red hot, while construction gains completely consumed by inflation February monthly data started out this morning with the ISM manufacturing report. The index, especially its new orders subindex, is an important short leading indicator for the production sector. In February the index rose from 57.6 to 58.6, as did the more leading new orders […]
No signs of the international political crisis creating any Western economic crisis at this point No important economic data today, and no significant COVID updates over the weekend. Let me make a few comments and then turn to the bond market, particularly as it reflects the international situation.I have no more insight into the Ukraine […]
Never Mind Schrödinger’s Cat, Here’s David Bohm’s Dream I’ve had dreams of all sorts from time to time, but I don’t remember them too well. There was one dream that had a sort of philosophical content. I dreamt I was in a place that had a cat. I came into the room where this cat […]
Consumers still spend, but real income declines, leaving them increasingly vulnerable to price shocks Nominal personal income was unchanged in January, while spending rose 2.1%. In real terms after inflation, personal income declined -0.5%, and personal consumption expenditures rose 1.5%, completely reversing December’s decline, and adding about 0.2%. I have stopped comparing them with their […]
Expressions that pass from hand to hand like sealed containers… In Herbert Marcuse and Planned Obsolescence I undertook to develop a theoretical foundation for ‘planned obsolescence’ from Georg Simmel’s analysis of the “preponderance of objective culture over subjective culture that developed during the nineteenth century.” My intuition has proved to be uncannily prescient. Besides the indirect influence […]
New home sales increasing trend continues – for now; expect a major pullback in coming months With mortgage rates having risen sharply (as of this morning Mortgage News Daily has the 30-year rate up to 4.19%, the highest in nearly three years), we are at an important moment for the housing market. In that context, […]
New 50+ year low in continuing jobless claims [Programming note: I will post about new home sales later this morning.] Initial claims (blue) declined 17,000 to 232,000 (vs. the pandemic low of 188,000 on December 4). The 4 week average (red) declined 7,250 to 236,250 (vs. the pandemic low of 199,750 on December 25). Continuing […]
House price increases still strong, but clear deceleration from peak The Case Shiller and FHFA house price indexes were reporting this morning, covering the period through December. As you all know well, my mantra is that interest rates lead sales, and sales in turn lead prices. Here’s this month’s update. The monthly increase in the […]