Jobs growth is a lagging indicator of economic activity, so the June report confirms that the US economy has been in a deep rut (Marshall Auerback calls it a ‘fully-fledged New York City style pot hole’). Yes, the US economy is growing; but sub-2% really ‘feels’ like stagnation, if not recession for many. As always, […]

I’ll make this quick, since I’m going to get in trouble for writing on a national holiday when my friends are coming for a night of drinking and comparing stats on sports betting apps we’ve been frequenting. But the pace of annual jobs growth is too slow to generate strong wage and salary income. Much […]

Fifteen years ago this evening, my wife made the biggest mistake of her life. And she still hasn’t repented. But that doesn’t mean there might not be a little “buyer’s remorse“: G-d help me, that was the best specific option I could find.* So let’s go instead with a standard: *Really, folks, does no one […]

This is why Andrew Leonard (h/t Yves Smith) gets paid for blogging and I don’t. He tries to do the impossible: make sense out of Michelle Bachmann’s “economics“: 1) The interest can easily be paid for … Bachmann is making the argument here that the U.S. can choose to pay its creditors — the various […]

I don’t see why the aggregate state funding gap is not numero uno on the ‘risks’ to the US outlook (I usually hear oil, Europe, China, etc., in my line of work). According to the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, the State budget gap is not expected to clear at least through 2013. From […]

Readers of this blog know that I am in finance, specifically global fixed income. This blog post covers wealth effects in the financial industry, which is a relatively dominant share of total US compensation, 7.3% in 2009 and likely higher now (data are truncated at 2009). My view is that economists underestimate the wealth effects […]

Go. Read. US Bank Exposure to Greece, part 3. The FT lets someone from Nomura argue that Kash’s declaration of U.S. bank exposure to Greek default in Part 2 (referenced here, but just go to Kash’s link for the gist) was overstated. Nomura and The FT lose the argument, badly. “Disasters for an economy — […]

…it seems that way, at least, when I listen to much of the rhetoric coming out of Washington. But it’s not just Washington, it’s Wall Street, too. In my line of work, finance, market participants grapple with the monthly economic data flow, eyeing each release as if it’s telling a new story about the current […]

There are reasons to expect the second half of the year to be be stronger than the first. Here are two: (1) the rebound in industrial activity following supply chain disruptions, and (2) possible impetus to investment spending coming from the depreciation allowance that expires this year. These factors, though, are just dressing up what […]

Yesterday I addressed the weak high-frequency indicators, specifically with respect to leading indicators of investment spending on equipment and software (durable goods). I argued that Q2 has not started off well, given that the real core orders for capital goods are down compared to the January to March average. The BEA reported that Q1 2011 […]