Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

Kash is En Fuego Today

Go. Read. US Bank Exposure to Greece, part 3. The FT lets someone from Nomura argue that Kash’s declaration of U.S. bank exposure to Greek default in Part 2 (referenced here, but just go to Kash’s link for the gist) was overstated. Nomura and The FT lose the argument, badly. “Disasters for an economy — […]

Greece: This Decade’s Argentina?

Crossposted at The Street Light. There’s been a bit of discussion floating around about whether the US’s deficit and debt situation makes it appropriate to draw comparisons with Greece. Of course, such a comparison is ridiculous for a number of reasons, not least because the US has its own currency. But Greece has been on […]

Currency Markets and the Disaster in Japan

I’ve been receiving questions about this week’s rather dramatic appreciation of the yen. Central banks around the world have been intervening today to prevent further volatility in exchange rates, but that still doesn’t explain exactly why currency traders have been so eager to buy yen this week. There are rarely easy answers to questions involving […]

A little perspective on the impact that a weaker USD will have on overall economic activity

The Japanese yen, the Eurozone euro, and the British pound have appreciated 16%, 14%, and 9%, against the USD, respectively, since their 2010 lows. Some say that the “US wins” since the Fed’s quantitative easing (QE2) will drive export growth via a weaker dollar. (Note that the Fed has not actually announced QE2, this is […]

China’s competitive devaluation

China took the world by surprise on Tuesday by raising bank lending and deposit rates for the first time since 2007. The story is, that restrictive monetary policy (i.e., raising rates) is needed to curb excessive lending, with an eye on mitigating inflation pressures. See this Bloomberg article to the point. While restrictive monetary policy […]

GCC regional currency discussions

Information Clearinghouse caught this item about ME banks and soveriegn funds (the same) de-pegging from the dollar to help curb their inflation woes. Alan Greenspan recommends doing so I believe. I think the current discussion on the US economy is much less thorough than need be.