Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

Paying for Social Security Redux

A rerun of a S.S. commentary by Dale Coberly. “HOW TO PAY FOR SOCIAL SECURITY” was written by Dale Coberly and posted by Dan Crawford on Angry Bear September 9, 2010. Of course, Dan died as well as Bruce Webb, Dale retired from Angry Bear after doing years of excellent commentary, I have not talked […]

US has Largely Turned into a Banana Republic in Political and Economic terms

“Record low labor share: corporate profits are at their most extreme levels ever compared with nonsupervisory payrolls,”  – by New Deal democrat An I’ve read a few takes in the past week or so about the declining “labor share” of GDP. To cut to the chase, here’s a link to that exact graph:  In case you are […]

A powerful new tailwind behind the economy: the “real” price of gas

 – by New Deal democrat There’s no new data of note today or tomorrow, so in the meantime (aside from observing Martin Luther King’s birthday) let me take a look at a very important, if small piece of economic data: the “real” price of gas. Gas price shocks have been important precipitants of a number of […]

New Deal democrats Weekly Indicators for January 12 – 16

– by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha. With the yield curve close to completely normal and mortgage rates at or near 3 year lows, and the housing market reacting to those, the longer range picture is improving. But what is going to drive (in more ways than one) the immediate […]

Action/reaction

In an effort to extort Greenland from Denmark, Trump has ordered a 10% tariff on goods from EU nations that have opposed the US expropriation effort beginning in February. He has threatened to raise that to 25% if they don’t capitulate. A couple of points: • The tariffs are mostly a nothingburger for EU economies: […]

Industrial production sets new post-pandemic high in December – but mainly due to utilities

– by New Deal democrat Industrial production is much less central to the US economic picture than it was before the “China shock,” but it remains an important if diminished economic indicator, particularly since the month it has peaked in the past has typically been the month the NBER has chosen as the economic cycle peak. […]

Let them eat cake

The privileged elitists on Trump’s cabinet can’t help themselves. They broadcast how, like Trump himself, they’re out of touch. “Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins made waves this week with claims that the Trump administration’s revamped food pyramid leaves plenty of room for Americans to maintain a healthy diet for as little as $3 a meal. “In […]

Important scenes from the (recessionary?) December jobs report; was July a cycle peak?

 – by New Deal democrat Last Friday I summarized the jobs report as “show[ing] a contracting jobs market in all important metrics except the headlines (which, for the record, were positive).  …[A]lmost] all of the important leading metrics … were negative, [including the] goods-producing sectors – manufacturing, construction (including residential construction), and temporary jobs – declined, as […]