Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

The student loan shock

 – by New Deal democrat Earlier this week, I wrote about 4 current shocks to the US economy (tariffs, medical insurance increases, SNAP payments, and AI related layoffs), but I should have included a 5th as well: the effect of the end of the student loan repayment moratorium. As a quick refresher, the Biden Administration enacted […]

Hospital CEOs

Hospital CEOs Pay Is Too Damn High, MedPage Today President Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act — otherwise known as the “Big Beautiful Bill” — is projected to magnify economic inequality in the U.S. By 2034, the top tenth of U.S. households will see an estimated $13,600 increase in “household resources” (annual income), while the bottom tenth […]

Light vehicle sales and transportation of goods: the next recession caution shoe may have dropped

– by New Deal democrat Although the temporary continuing resolution was signed last night, reopening the Federal government through January, needless to say the reporting of economic statistics has not yet resumed, meaning that this morning’s scheduled reports on consumer inflation and retail sales for October were not released. So we must continue to rely on […]

Important thought for the day: lessons from SuperNanny “about Caving”

– by New Deal democrat From Avika M. Cohen, “Litigation Disaster tour guide”: ——- Ppl need to understand what’s happening here. The GOP response to the shutdown was: You’re gonna cave, or we’re going to hurt vulnerable people by shutting off SNAP. The Dems, unwilling to let that happen, caved. Having watched that, the GOP is […]

Money where their mouth isn’t

The Republican Party and the American right-wing (but I repeat myself) has been predicting for over 100 years the doom of the US if liberals or moderates are elected. Yet somehow, these absurd prophecies are evergreen. “Fox News host Sean Hannity on Tuesday ranted about the supposed dangers of New York City Mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani, […]

Why is the housing crisis global?

Demand, Costs, and Regulation . . . The one-handed economist Gary @ YouTube gives one good answer: the rich are buying all the houses. So go watch that, to learn about one shift on the demand side. Shifts in demand are caused by, among other things, changes in income or taste. The rich have more income so they […]

Average Tariff Rate Under Trump is Highest Since 1940s

In 2024, before the renewed trade war, the US tariff rate stood just under 2.5 percent. Between the new emergency IEEPA tariffs and national security Section 232 tariffs, we estimate it will rise to 13.0 percent. That’s the highest tariff rate since 1941.  The government has been shut down for 40 days, delaying key federal […]

The 4 shocks jolting the US economy towards recession

– by New Deal democrat This week the normal empty period for new data after the monthly jobs report is of course compounded by the government shutdown. There is no noteworthy new private data coming out until Thursday, so don’t be surprised if I play hooky tomorrow. But today let me follow up on some macro […]

50-year mortgages won’t solve the housing problem

Trump is pushing 50-year mortgages as an answer to home affordability. Given his track record, it’s a safe bet that anything Trump is selling is a bad investment. “The appeal of a 50-year mortgage is simple: Home prices are near all-time highs, leaving many aspiring buyers priced out of the market. A longer payback period […]