– by New Deal democrat As I have done since the beginning of the government shutdown, the unadjusted number of initial and continuing claims can be calculated based on reporting by the States, plus DC, and Puerto Rico. Then, by applying the same adjustment as was used for the same week last year, the seasonally adjusted […]
Looks like the Democrats traded the shutdown for a vague promise, rather than insisting on reversing the GOP Medicaid subsidy cuts. “The bill will keep the government open until Jan. 30 of next year, fund some federal programs like the Agriculture Department for the entire year, and put limits on Trump’s ability to fire federal […]
– by New Deal democrat On a normal first Friday of the month, I would be crunching the official jobs report data to try to provide not just a coincident report on the jobs market, but also to focus on the leading indicators within that report, such as the manufacturing and construction sectors and also […]
If you are in management, typically you will not know everything going on in a department. You may have to ask for clarification. You don’t panic and you do have to answer a comment or a question. Trump could not answer or rebut the reporter’s easy to answer question or remark. When you do not […]
– by New Deal democrat The Senior Loan Officer Survey is a long leading indicator, telling us about credit conditions that typically turn worse a year or more before the economy turns down, and improve just at the economy is ready to turn up. Fortunately, since it is reported by the Federal Reserve, it is unaffected […]
– by New Deal democrat With the shutdown of the official government sources, along with the regional Fed indexes, the ISM manufacturing and services indexes have become especially important. To recap, because of manufacturing’s diminished importance to the general economy, the services index has become significantly more important. For forecasting purposes, I assign a 75% weight […]
Such has been going on for decades. Some history on how much of this evolved historically on the planning side. Equipment efficiencies made planning easier and decreased costs. I started to work in industry late seventies and did so until 2020-something. Fresh out of the service in 71, three years to gain a math-driven BA […]
– by Steve Roth Originally posted at Wealth Economics Economists have widely ignored it, even while dubbing it the “preferred” measure of income. “The greatest trick capital-gainsincome ever managed was convincingthe world that it doesn’t exist.”—Carlos Mucha (inventor of the Platinum Coin) This post draws on a far lengthier and more detailed paper — including support for […]
The US has a long and sordid history of military extortion. The latest example is Trump’s saber-rattling movement of Navy battle groups off the coast of Venezuela and the extrajudicial assassinations the administration has been conducting off the Venezuelan coast in the name of drug interdiction.* Writing for the Boston Globe, Stephen Kinzer, a senior […]
– by New Deal democrat As I have done since the beginning of the government shutdown, the number of initial and continuing claims can be calculated notwithstanding, because it is based on reporting by the States, plus DC, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands. Then by applying the same adjustment as was used for the […]