by New Deal democrat Weekly Indicators for November 11 – 15 at Seeking Alpha My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. Although a few indicators backed off some this week, the overall tone, ex-manufacturing, across all time frames is positive. You may be reading a few takes today about the poor nowcasts out of […]
Industrial production tanks on GM strikes; Real retail sales decline slightly First, let me briefly address industrial production, which fell -0.8% in October. On its face this is an awful number. But take it with a big grain of salt: mainly it reflected the GM strike. Here’s the applicable note from the Federal Reserve: Manufacturing output […]
Is Venezuela Stabilizing? Maybe. It looks the inflation rate in Venezuela maxed out in January at an annuualized rate of 192,000 % , whiich fell by September to 4,600% rate, still in hyperinflationary teritoryy, but clearly coming down substantially. I am not a fan of this regime and never was, unlike some prominent economists saying […]
Initial claims continue to show slowdown, but no imminent recession I’ve been monitoring initial jobless claims closely for the past several months, to see if there are any signs of a slowdown turning into something worse. Simply put, no recession is going to begin unless and until layoffs increase. My two thresholds are: 1. If […]
(Dan here…Eric will be posting some of his work. He has read many econ blogs but has not published in the econ blogosphere. He is experienced otherwise…welcome Eric.) Bio for Eric Kramer I am an economist and lawyer by training and I am currently writing a book on political economy and the role of government. […]
Andrew Yang says, “Yes, Robots Are Stealing Your Job” in an op-ed at the New York Times. Paul Krugman thinks they’re not and advises, “Democrats, Avoid the Robot Rabbit Hole.” This is, of course, a classic case of asking the wrong question. The real question is: will robots burn down your house and kill your […]
Ukraine Corruption and Transfer Pricing As I listened to the testimony of Bill Taylor and George Kent, I was also reading up on some South African transfer pricing case involving iron ore: Kumba Iron Ore will pay less than half of the tax bill it received from the SA Revenue Service (Sars) last year following audits […]
Real average and aggregate wages declined in October October’s consumer inflation reading came in at a surprisingly high +0.4%, which as shown in red in the graph below, was one of the 3 highest in the past two years. Meanwhile average hourly earnings increased less than +0.2% – the second lowest reading in the past […]
How economists blew the analysis of the manufacturing jobs shock I came across this article yesterday, posted by – to his credit – Brad DeLong, whose argument it eviscerates. Entitled “The Epic MIstake about Manufacturing That’s Cost Americans Millions of Jobs,” it deserves widespread attention. So I am summarizing it here. But by all means go and […]
(Dan here…see previous posts VSPS get their budget deal 2015 Econospeak and Gas all boomers or at least tax and cut 2015 Econospeak Also see Millenials and baby boomers) “ok boomer ” or “gas all boomers” Within the last week or so there seems to have been an explosion of yattering over “ok […]