Scenes from the October employment report: leading sectors remain poor Yesterday I discussed unemployment and labor force participation from last week’s jobs report, which with the significant exception that better wage growth would probably lead to more people deciding that they’d like a job, remains very positive. Today let’s look at the bad news, which […]
by New Deal democrat Weekly Indicators for November 4 – 8 at Seeking Alpha My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. The biggest story of the week was the move higher in long term interest rates. This means that the “yield curve inversion” you’ve read so much about in the past year is over. […]
David Zetland….”For years, I have complained that “nobody wakes up in the morning, looks at GDP statistics, and changes their plans for the day.” Listen to this podcast on mis-measuring productivity and manufacturing statistics, which may have given populists excuses to “fix” problems that never existed. (My impression is that many more people would be happier if they looked […]
Scenes from the October employment report: full employment? Last Friday the household jobs report – the one that tells us about unemployment, underemployment, and labor force participation – has been particularly strong in the past three months. This has driven some impressive gains in labor force participation and the unemployment rate. To begin with, gains […]
Wall Street analysts have long engaged in speculative predictions about the impact of political shifts on the economy, particularly as elections approach. Recently, I came across discussions highlighting trends on koreacasiosites.com 카지노보증사이트, a platform known for providing information on secure online casino sites, which sparked an interesting parallel. Much like the claims of imminent economic […]
by Joseph Joyce The Changing Nature of FDI The OECD has published its data on flows of foreign direct investment (FDI) for the first half of 2019. They reveal how multinational firms are responding to the slowdown in global trade and the U.S.-Chinese tariffs. They may also reflect longer-term trends in FDI as multinationals reconfigure the scope […]
September JOLTS report: mixed with “hard” positives and a “soft” negative This morning’s JOLTS report for September was mixed, with a decline in job openings and an increase in layoffs, but advances in hiring and voluntary quits. To review, because this series is only 20 years old, we only have one full business cycle to […]
The ARAMCO IPO Stumbles Out The Door Finally after numerous delays, the potentially largest Initial Public Offering (IPO) of stock has finally become for fully state-owned ARAMCO in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA). MOst of the delays had involved an unwillingness by the Saudi royal family to publicize financial and other factual details about […]
Has Tyler Cowen or John Cochrane Ever Heard of Monopsony Power? I’m going to replicate one portion of a long winded rant about alleged cognitive dissonance: The argument for a minimum wage is that labor demand is inelastic — employers will hire the same number of workers. They will just absorb the higher wages or pass […]
October jobs report paints a portrait of a full (or nearly full) employment economy HEADLINES: +128,000 jobs added (+148,000 ex-Census) U3 unemployment rate up +0.1% from 3.5% to 3.6% U6 underemployment rate up +0.1% from 6.9% to 7.0% Leading employment indicators of a slowdown or recession I am highlighting these because many leading indicators overall […]