Have we finally reached “full employment”? As I noted on Friday, the household report – the one that tells us about unemployment, underemployment, and labor force participation – was particularly good. In fact, the last two months together have been so good that, at least by some measures, we may finally have arrived at “full […]
The Repo Ruckus This is now about three weeks old news, but it is increasingly clear that it is not clear why it happened or if it will happen again. There was an outbreak of completely unexpected volatility in the repo market, where in the past the Fed had carried out open market operations, although […]
September jobs report: excellent in coincident and lagging sectors, cautionary in leading sectors HEADLINES: +136,000 jobs added (+135,000 ex-Census) U3 unemployment rate declined -0.2% from 3.7% to 3.5% (NEW LOW) U6 underemployment rate declined -0.3% from 7.2% to 6.9% (NEW LOW) Leading employment indicators of a slowdown or recession I am highlighting these because many […]
Despite all the recent stock market volatility the actual S&P 500 PE on trailing operating earnings is almost exactly where my model says it should be. The biggest problem is that the market PE is about 19 and bond yields are under 2%. The quick and dirty rule of thumb is that a 100 basis […]
Once again, two sharply contrasting reports to start the month One month ago, I wrote that the first reports in September, construction spending and the ISM manufacturing index, showed two contrasting views of the economy. That was again the case today. As in last month, residential construction spending increased for the month. Below I show […]
Expect a weak report for the leading jobs sectors on Friday September motor vehicle sales will be reported later today, after the domestic US manufacturers post their numbers. Sales of all other vehicles were down -13% YoY, but that is without seasonal adjustment including for Labor Day, so the seasonally adjusted sales might tell a […]
Peoples’ Republic of China Reaches Age 70 While most US media claims China (PRC) has the world’s second largest economy, that is only true as measured in nominal terms. Measured in real PPP terms, Chinese GDP surpassed that of the US in 2015 and continees to move further ahead of it (and is likely to […]
First-ever binding end to a border war: Missouri-Kansas UPDATED (Dan here late….August 2 post) Kansas Governor Laura Kelly has just signed an executive order that prohibits state subsidies being used to move existing Missouri firms in four Missouri counties to three Kansas counties, which together make up the Kansas City metropolitan area. Unlike previous voluntary no-raiding […]
by New Deal democrat Weekly Indicators for September 23 – 27 at Seeking Alpha My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. If you’re wondering why it’s so late, it’s because SA pretty much shut down between Friday afternoon and this morning. Anyway, recession risks are rapidly receding, at least through the 4th Quarter. As […]
The New US-Japan Trade Agreement Lost in the shuffle this past week was one piece of good news for Trump: a tentative trade deal with Japan that he and Japan’s PM Shinzō Abe signed in New York on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly meeting. While it is largely a favorable deal, it does […]