Today the German Federal Statistics Office reported that the February Consumer Price Index is expected to mark a 2.0% (2.047% by my calculations, which is very close to a rounded 2.1%) annual pace in February 2011. This is simply a ‘flash’ print, and the Statistics Office was very careful to discount the fact that inflation […]
Bond markets are pricing in rate hikes this year by the ECB and the BoE. Both are inflation targeters, so which one should react first to a possible spike in oil prices? What’s your answer? (1) Neither. As FX appreciation and fiscal austerity pass through to domestic prices, the core will drag down the headline. […]
Eurointelligence cites a Die Zeit interview (the original interview here) with ECB central bank President Jean-Claude Trichet. Their take on it is quite interesting, which suggests that most are ‘wrong’ about the path of ECB policy. According to Eurointelligence: Central bankers are trained not to say anything of any relevance in long speeches or interviews, […]
Key European CDS are starting to turn in the more northern direction again, as the German-French ‘pact for competitiveness’ faces near-unanimous pushback across Europe. Credit default swaps (CDS) are a market security used by investors to buy 5-yr protection (in this case) against default (or the like). As the spread rises the implied probability of […]
Reposted from New Deal 2.0 with permission from author. Deficit Hawks Down: The Misconstrued “Facts” Behind Their Hype by James K. Galbraith Economist James K. Galbraith attends a Pete Peterson-funded road show. The Fiscal Solutions Tour is the latest Peter G. Peterson Foundation effort to rouse the public against deficits and the national debt — […]
David Beckworth points to Scott Sumner, who points to Kantoos on the effectiveness of nominal income targeting in Germany. Kantoos’ illustration certainly suggests that the ECB has been successful in getting the dynamics of output and prices (nominal GDP) right over the last decade. I have no contention with the historical evidence. Whether or not […]
Kash Mansori will be writing again for Angry Bear. He has his own site The Streetlight, which carries several new posts. When he entered the private sector in 2006 he stopped writing for blogs. Kash wrote well written and data driven posts on international finance and macro economic topics, and some humorous as well. Welcome […]
Mark Thoma is a truly stand-up guy. We need more like him screaming for the unemployed and underemployed. I’ll comment just a bit more after Mark’s commentary. Mark Thoma on The Slow Recovery of Unemployment: I don’t like to make economic forecasts. Though I do it on occasion, I generally leave that to Tim Duy […]
I’ll forward you to Spencer’s post on the January Employment report. As always, he sifts through this massive report and eloquently describes the state of the labor market. But I thought that I’d add a bit on the disparity between the household survey and the establishment survey. The annual population revisions and weather distortions have […]
It occurred to me that some Angry Bear readers may be interested in a short analysis of the Egyptian bond market. Professionally, I’m a macroeconomic analyst and portfolio manager on a global fixed income team. Since we do trade emerging market debt, of which Egyptian debt is categorized, I’ll be happy to comment. The gist […]