Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

Debts, Deficits and Social Security

With the release of Tim Geithner’s new autobiography the old quarrel about whether Social Security does or even can add to “the deficit” has cropped up again. So rather than weigh in let me start from a more neutral spot. CBO produces a document called the Monthly Budget Review and in Nov 2013 it carried […]

Stocks are shaky

Is the sun setting? On April 22nd, I wrote a comment to a reader of my Effective Demand blog. I said… “My view now is that the Dow Jones will make a publicity effort with hopes to get back up to 16800, then come down from there.” The Dow Jones made it to 16715. Today […]

How the Fed Cornered the Long Bond

Fed Treasury Holdings 5-7-2014 The above link should take you to a PDF showing the Fed’s System Open Market Accounts holdings of Treasury Bonds and Notes which the second link will tell you comprise $2.224 trillion of the total $4.017 trillion of SOMA Holdings, with that total including $1.631 trillion of Fannie and Freddie Mac […]

Chris Christie proves himself to be a genius!

The problem we have in this country is not income inequality. It’s opportunity inequality. — Chris Christie, today And since there’s no causal relationship whatsoever between income inequality and opportunity inequality, this is sure to be a winning political message in 2016. Christie made the comment “at a ‘fiscal summit’ hosted by the Peter G. Peterson Foundation, which […]

Microfoundations of Inequality and Sabotage

by Sandwichman Microfoundations of Inequality and Sabotage “In sum, these models [efficiency wage] provide a new, consistent, and plausible microfoundation for a Keynesian model of the cycle.” — Janet Yellen (1984). Inequality and Sabotage, explored the relationship between Thomas Piketty’s “r > g” inequality and speculated, based on Veblen (1921) and Kalecki (1943), that businesses […]

U.S. Federal Intergenerational Debt: Rendered and Layered

It is a common trope among Austerians that the U.S. is passing on unsustainable debt to our children and grandchildren. And certainly there are some scary numbers out there, for example “$17.4 trillion!!” A very real number. But maybe it would be useful to render that number down so as to calculate real incidence of […]

Japan’s experience of the Fisher Effect

When Japan’s call rate (the nominal rate from their central bank) went to the zero lower bound, Japan developed deflation. It was not a deflation where the bottom fell out and kept falling. It was a deflation somewhat stable below 0%. The stability of their low deflation would make sense according to the Fisher Effect […]