August jobs report: for once, the underwhelming headline masked very good internals HEADLINES: +130,000 jobs added (+105,000 ex-Census) U3 unemployment rate unchanged at 3.7% U6 underemployment rate rose 0.2% to 7.2% Leading employment indicators of a slowdown or recession I am highlighting these because many leading indicators overall strongly suggest that an employment slowdown […]
by Joseph Joyce Is Inflation a Global Phenomenon? The persistence of inflation at relatively low rates despite years of monetary stimulus has led to wide-ranging investigations into its determinants. Traditionally the rate of inflation has been linked via a Phillips curve relationship to domestic factors, such as slack in the labor market. But is there […]
Two sharply contrasting reports on the economy to start September We got two contrasting views of the economy this morning. (Tuesday) First, the good news: residential construction spending increased in July. Below I show it in comparison with single family permits: Typically construction follows permits. In the past few years, it has been almost coincident […]
Figure 1 Via mashable: Alaska’s exceptional summer continues. The most rapidly changing state in the U.S. has no sea ice within some 150 miles of its shores, according to high-resolution sea ice analysis from the National Weather Service. The big picture is clear: After an Arctic summer with well above-average temperatures, warmer seas, and a historic July heat wave, sea […]
Does O’Rourke Have The Trade Strategy For Dems Against Trump? I have been posting here periodically on how it seems that the Dems do not seem to have a strong or well-defined position about Trump’s trade wars that seem politically effective or even coherent. The few candidates who have made noise about essentially returning to […]
The Hurricane/Picture of Dorian Gray: A Perfect Moral Storm in Three Texts Andreas Malm, Fossil Capital: The temporal aspect is particularly striking,’ writes philosopher Stephen Gardiner, who has done perhaps more than anyone to foreground it, in A Perfect Moral Storm: The Ethical Tragedy of Climate Change: it catches us in a bind. Given that global warming […]
As of the second quarter the year over year percent change in real GDP is 2.3%. Virtually everyone refers to this as strong. Why? By historic standards 2.3% real GDP growth is subpar. It is below the long term growth rate of the economy using virtually any widely accepted estimate of trend or potential growth. […]
by New Deal democrat Weekly indicators for August 26 – 30 at Seeking Alpha My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha.One of the benefits(?) of the discipline of a mechanical forecasting system is that it can be completely dissonant with what your emotions are telling you. Right now the discipline of my long/short leading/coincident […]
The quick and dirty leading indicator watch has been stagnant for 18+ months [Note: I’ve been working on my “what leads consumer spending” opus, and as often happens, I don’t want to publish anything until I’m sure I’ve got something good – which means lots more research and saved graphs — and nothing whatsoever published! […]
Consumer spending leads employment — but what leads consumer spending? One relationship I have consistently flogged for the past decade is that consumer spending leads employment. That’s still true. Here is one of the graphs on that score going back over 50 years, the YoY% change, averaged quarterly, in real aggregate payrolls (blue) vs. real […]