Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

The New York Times: A Propaganda Machine for Trump

The New York Times: A Propaganda Machine for Trump The Times thinks it’s leading the forces of reason and light against Donald Trump, but it doesn’t have a clue.  Every day their front page is festooned with the latest noxious Trumpian remark, followed by paragraphs of commentary on how unprecedented it is for a president […]

Initial jobless claims: positive this week, but close to crossing two thresholds for concern

Initial jobless claims: positive this week, but close to crossing two thresholds for concern I have started to monitor initial jobless claims to see if there are any signs of stress. My two thresholds are: 1. If the four week average on claims is more than 10% above its expansion low. 2. If the YoY% […]

Manufacturing job losses now look virtually certain

Manufacturing job losses now look virtually certain I’ll have a post going up at Seeking Alpha later, but between a steep decline in the manufacturing work week, lackluster regional Fed manufacturing indexes (still barely positive), a turndown in durable goods orders (in part due to Boeing’s woes), and increasing inventories, it now looks nearly certain that […]

Whither The Price Of Oil?

Whither The Price Of Oil? I do not know, which is a kind of silly way to start a post, but pretty obviously this is an opening to talk about some other matters, especially the US-Iran situation.  However, I want to point out some things  that have been on my mind.  In particular, while oil […]

New home sales: is housing developing a price “choke collar”?

New home sales: is housing developing a price “choke collar”? So, new single family home sales for May were reported light this morning: Because this series is very volatile and heavily revised, as always take this with a grain of salt. To smooth out some of the volatility, I pay more attention to the three […]

New article in Shelterforce highlights EU state aid rules

New article in Shelterforce highlights EU state aid rules Greg LeRoy and I have written an article at Shelterforce explaining the basics of the European Union’s rules governing subsidies, or “state aid” in EU-speak. As the article is ungated, and regular readers will remember much of the detail, I will not quote it here. Suffice it to […]

A tale of two timeframes

A tale of two timeframes No data today Monday, so while we are waiting for new home sales tomorrow, let me step back a little and give you an updated overview of my thinking. It boils down to: the short term forecast — over the next 4 to 8 months — looks flat at best, […]

Two articles to think about, one on opioids, the other billing for hospital care

Via Naked Capitalism: Place based economic conditions and the geography of the opioid overdose crisis By Shannon Monnat, Associate Professor, Syracuse University. Originally published at the Institute for New Economic Thinking website Over 400,000 people in the U.S. have died from opioid overdoses since 2000. However, there is widespread geographic variation in fatal opioid overdose rates, […]