by Mike Kimel Explaining Trump’s Appeal, Part 3 In a recent post, I showed that since 1950 a. foreign born population correlates to slower job creation b. it is becoming increasingly difficult for people to find a job in the US I want to try to tie both those facts, and explain them. But first, […]
by New Deal democrat Real aggregate wage growth: August 2016 update In my opinion the best measure of how average Americans are doing in an economic expansion isn’t jobs, and it isn’t wages per hour. Rather, it is real aggregate wage growth. This is calculated as follows: average wages per hour for nonsupervisory workers times […]
Barkley Rosser notes at Econospeak: Women New School Econ PhDs Hit The Big Time Dr. Stephanie Bell Kelton served as the top economic adviser of Bernie Sanders. She has apparently recently returned to her old position in the economics department at the University of Missouri-Kansas City. It has now been announced that Dr. Heather Boushey […]
Doug Higgins sent a note on China from Nikkei Asian Review Doug adds “The size of the layoffs—as well as their nature—may be quite significant. China has been economically stuttering—closing factories, slowing its export machine. Of course, the U.S. trade deficit continues. The Neoliberals and elites studiously ignore trade as a sign of anything important. […]
by Mike Kimel Top Marginal Tax Rates and Real Economic Growth, Part 1 This post looks at the relationship between the top marginal income tax bracket and growth in real GDP per capita (from NIPA table 7.1) in the subsequent year or years. The first graph shows the top marginal income tax rate on a […]
I wrote a post about the velocity of M2 money supply. There were comments that the M2 money supply is a dying indicator. Well, let’s look… There are 3 indicators for the money supply, M1, M2 and MZM. M1 is the narrowest. MZM is the broadest. M2 is in the middle. “M1 is the money […]
Using my model of core inflation, nominal rates, profit rates, labor share & capacity utilization, here is a graph of the present situation. The estimated natural real rate for this graph is 1.7%. The vertical dashed green line shows where capacity utilization is now at 75.2%. The solid red line shows the path of the […]
Outside the factory setting [which Clinton toured today before she gave her economic-policy speech], a scattering of pro-Trump protesters held “Hillary for Prison” signs and criticized Mrs. Clinton’s connections to Wall Street. And more than 1,000 miles away in Florida, Mr. Trump echoed that critique. “She doesn’t have the talent” to jumpstart the economy, Mr. […]
by Joseph Joyce Capital Flows and Financial Activity in Commodity Exporters Emerging markets and developing economies have struggled in recent years to regain the growth rates of the last decade before the global financial crisis. The slowdown has been particularly evident in commodity-exporters that face declining prices. The World Bank’s most recent Global Economic Prospects, […]
I have been presenting a new model to explain the forces around inflation. (link1, link2) Antonio Fatas poses a very good question. You can lower interest rates, but can you raise inflation? “But if monetary policy is being successful we expect inflation expectations and growth expectations to increase. Both of these forces should push long-term […]