I and many others, including Yves Smith, waded into the thicket of Mike Kimel’s provocative generic and specific-reasons-for-the-generic claims in his post here earlier this week titled “Negative Effects of Immigration on the Economy.”  I and others, including academic economist Barkley Rosser, commented in replies in the Comments thread to Mike’s post.  Yves did so on […]

by Mike Kimel Negative Effects of Immigration on the Economy In a recent post, I showed that looking at data since 1950 or so, the percentage of the population that is foreign born is negatively correlated with job creation in later years. I promised an explanation, and I will attempt to deliver on that promise […]

I have posted this model of core inflation before. Core inflation on y-axis. Corporate-after-tax profit rate minus nominal rates on x-axis. The model implies that inflation depends upon the difference between an aggregate corporate profit rate and nominal rates. The more nominal rates cut into corporate profit rates, the more corporations would choose to raise […]

Being born on November 9th, I will get the end of this campaign for my birthday (tough luck Josh Barro of course this also means that I couldn’t vote in 1978 the year I turned 18 (but neither could J Barro so there)). It also means that my astrological sign is scorpio, which is relevant […]

Eminent macro/growth economist Paul Romer denounced business cycle macroeconomics. I strongly advise reading his wonderful paper, which is devastating and funny. I’d also look at Noah Smith’s intelligent discussion. But if you insist, read on.

So some econ out of Harvard is shocked about what he found regarding our economy.  It’s a government problem.  The government is just not responding (read that: not doing anything). Americans no longer trust their political leaders, and political polarization has increased dramatically. Americans are increasingly frustrated with the U.S. political system. The political system […]

by New Deal democrat The real, timely “real median household income” just stood up: Sentier Research In April of this year, I wrote a piece entitled “Would the real real median household income please stand up?” discussing three separate measures from the Census Bureau, the BLS, and private think tank Sentier Research. By now you […]

Here is a graph from FRED showing monthly percentage movements of core inflation. (link to data) There used to be ranges that core inflation moved within. The monthly change either hit the maximum of that range or the minimum with some breakout movements in between. Monthly movements made sense by looking at 12-month moving averages. […]

Lifted from Robert’s Stochastic Thoughts By Robert Waldmann Why has Trump Gained in Polling Averages ? Yesterday, the talk of the day was Democrats panicking (as always) because support for Trump is creeping up in polling averages (as are estimated probabilities of President Trump). Today’s talk is totally deplorable and I will ignore it. I […]

At a time in history when inequality is growing and immigrants are being shunned, I offer the story of Pedro Opeka… He is an Argentinian priest working in Madagascar.