I first met Volcker when I was a junior international economist in Washington in the late 1960s. He was the Treasury Under Secretary for International Economics. I was going to a luncheon at the National Press Club for the Indian Finance Minister. As I got on the elevator, Paul Volcker and John Kenneth Galbraith — […]
How Long Will US Foreign Net Income Dark Matter Continue? The United States became a net foreign debtor in 1985. With current account deficits every year since then, net foreign indebtedness has steadily increased since and reached a reported total of -$10.56 trillion as of Sept. 30 this year, a substantial total. However, while many […]
December starts out with a thud The first reports in December are in, and both were negative. Let’s start with construction spending. Overall construction spending declined -0.8% in October. The more leading residential construction spending declined -0.9%, the second decline in a row (blue in the graph below): Figure1 Since actual spending on residential construction […]
It is not a dirty or hidden little secret. Insurance companies offering MA plans do not tell you that once you are in their plan, you are there potentially forever. Returning to traditional Medicare is ok but, getting a Medigap Plans to supplement the gap may lead to rejection or much higher premiums if you […]
Forecasting the 2020 election: the economic baseline (or, don’t count on a recession) Four years ago, I decided to use my set of “long leading indicators” to forecast the 2016 election. The indicators were very weakly positive, and pointed to a narrow popular vote win for the incumbent party one year out. This prompted Nate […]
by Eric Kramer The Case for Carbon Taxes, Part II: Political Sustainability In a prior post, I argued that carbon taxes are not vulnerable to political subversion by hostile courts and regulators, and that this is an important advantage of carbon taxes over traditional regulation based on mandates, and also an advantage over subsidies. Once […]
Via Naked Capitalism comes an explanation of what income inequality looks like in the US. It stands in contrast to the Bloomberg article pointed to by Yves in her introduction. I pulled the quotes with a non-economic person in mind. THE WOLF STREET REPORT transcript of podcast by Wolf Richter. Subprime doesn’t mean poor […]
The Current State of the U.S. Dairy Industry I had to endure a discussion of the plight of American dairy farmers where Trump’s trade policies were somehow to blame. Stephanie Mercier confirmed some of the facts: According to data reported by the National Farmers Union (NFU), the average dairy farm has shown a positive net income only […]
by Eric Kramer The Case for Carbon Taxes, Part I: Political Subversion Economists support carbon taxes on efficiency grounds. By putting a price on carbon dioxide emissions, a carbon tax creates a strong incentive for people reduce their carbon footprint. They can do this by switching to clean technologies or simply by reducing their […]
Bicycles and Wine Tariffs Jeffrey Frankel has a must read blog over at Econbrowser: The “bicycle theory” used to be a metaphor for international trade policy. Just as standing still on a bicycle is not an option — one has to keep moving forward or else the bike will fall over – so it was said […]