Initial Unemployment claims stay above 330,000

In a post 3 days ago, I referred to an article by Doug Short on his graph for the ratio of initial unemployment claims to the civilian labor force. He made the point that the ratio may have already hit a trough. If that turns out to be true, weekly initial unemployment claims will trend above 330,000 into the future. Today’s new data on initial unemployment claims supports that view. For the week ending February 8th, the seasonally adjusted initial claims were 339,000. The consensus forecast was for 330,000. The 4-week moving average moved up to 336,750.