Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

Labor versus Market and Demand

If I had not worked in factories planning production and the materials to support it as determined by demand, I would probably be floundering. What makes things difficult is people claiming Labor is the greatest cost to manufacturing. It is not. Look to Overhead, Materials, for such Or in my simple words, a slow slide […]

New Deal democrat’s Weekly Indicators for December 8 – 12

Weekly Indicators for December 8 – 12  – by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha. While there were no significant changes in the ratings, two big stories stand out: (1) the nearly total re-normalization of the yield curve in response to Fed interest rate cuts; and (2) evidence of further deterioration […]

Is Thanksgiving seasonality masking a possible longer term positive regime change in jobless claims?

 – by New Deal democrat This week’s update of initial and continuing jobless claims is a demonstration of two frames of seasonality: one in the immediate term, and one longer term stretching back several years. When we parse them out together, they suggest there may have been somewhat of a regime change that began in July […]

Tariffs and Tru_p

Pulled this from several weeks ago. It seems like we are still going the tariff route even though prices are going up. There is a hint of inflation or more than a hint. Short and sweet commentary. Short one and no graphs. Tariffs and Trump Crazy: It Keeps Getting Worse Dean Baker November 25, 2025 […]

Men Are Falling Behind in Education

One piece argues it is Globalization. Such has led to the decline of traditionally male-dominated industries (e.g. in the auto and construction industries). It left many young men feeling adrift. Another piece says men are falling behind in Education. If you read New Deal democrat, you will know service level jobs make up a larger […]

Three important fundamentals-based indicators of the consumer economy: are they turning?

– by New Deal democrat Today is one day of quiet before a slew of updated statistics, including the November jobs and inflation reports, are to be reported next week (it is unclear whether others originally scheduled for next week, like building permits and starts, will also be updated). There was some housing and rental inventory […]

Tennesseans are weird

I grew up in Tennessee, but since graduating from UT-Knoxpatch, I’ve only returned a few times for special occasions. A recent poll says that 61% rate the state’s economy as “very” or “fairly good,” and 53% feel things in Tennessee are going in the “right direction.” Which direction is the right direction? “According to the […]

Republicans still Working Hard to Gain a Tax Cut at the Expense of a Million or so People

Quick update on what is going on with healthcare for citizens. Republicans are still working hard to cut healthcare benefits to 1.5 to 2 million citizens. Let’s not forget the reasoning for doing so. Tru_p’s tax cuts to the upper 1 or so percent of the population not needing a tax cut need a balance. […]

Q3 employment costs: probably the “least positive” since the pandemic

 – by New Deal democrat The employment cost index, which was updated this morning through Q3, typically gets much less attention than the monthly payrolls report. But in this circumstance it is entitled to more notice, since the monthly data has only been posted through September as well. Additionally, one important advantange of the Employment Cost […]

October JOLTS report: red flag warning for employment sector in worst report since the pandemic

– by New Deal democrat This morning’s JOLTS report for October is now the most current official monthly indicator for the jobs sector. And it was emphatically not good. In fact, it was red flag recessionary. In the past year, in contrast to much other data in the jobs sector, the JOLTS reports had been very […]