Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

Expect shelter inflation to continue abating in the next few CPI reports

– by New Deal democrat There’s no significant economic news until Wednsday’s jobs report, as to which Scott Bessent gave an interview this morning on CNBC which amounted to, “Don’t Panic!!!” Which I am sure inspires confidence in everybody (I’ve been expecting downward revisions to much of last year as part of the annual benchmarking, so […]

Some Reads for a Sunday

Joel and I went through some articles in our email boxes(?) and thought they may make good reads for a Sunday. Too much to post on Angry Bear. Maybe Sunday reads. Comment section is open for any thoughts you may have related to a particular article (please mention which one). You can use this as […]

December JOLTS report stabilizing at near stall speed, despite one negative “soft data” outlier

 – by New Deal democrat I’m glad I waited a day to write about yesterday’s JOLTS report for December, because I got to read a lot of other commentary on the report, which convinced me to add some additional commentary about the entire JOLTS series.  Let’s start with the fact that it was not “stale” inasmuch […]

Jobless claims rise, but still mainly lower YoY: post-pandemic residual seasonality still at work?

 – by New Deal democrat The December JOLTS report that was delayed from Tuesday is scheduled to be released later this morning. I may cover it today, or may delay until tomorrow, since there won’t be a jobs report. In the meantime, let’s take our weekly look at jobless claims which, to reiterate, are a […]

Trump Policies Endanger Farmers as Countries Stop Buying Farm Products Due to Trade War

The challenge facing American farmers was unprecedented trade war with China. Almost immediately, China stopped buying soybeans altogether. This action was in retaliation, following the launch of the Trump administration’s unprecedented trade war. Previously, China was purchasing more than $12 billion worth of American soybean products in 2024. This represented approximately half the value of soybeans grown in the […]

January ADP private employment and ISM services reports show increasing stagflation in a weakly growing economy

– by New Deal democrat [Administrative note: the good news is, graphs are back! The bad news is, it is extremely glitchy and energy consuming, so my fingers are still crossed. Basically it boils down to Apple and Google don’t want to interact with one another, and have to be repeatedly dragged, kicking and screaming, into […]

Factors Contributing to U.S. Healthcare Spend

Briefly, just a quick and simple look as what contributes to total US healthcare spending. This is part of a much larger report: “How Has U.S. Health Care Spending Changed Over Time?” I find this part of the report to be interesting. But then, I was a consultant who was looking at throughput analysis. Very […]

The State of Freight is Mainly Recessionary

– by New Deal democrat This morning, we were supposed to get an actual, on-time JOLTS report for December. But with Pastor Mike Johnson having done what he does best, i.e., keeping the House of Representatives out of session while critical deadlines pass, the BLS announced yesterday that several reports, including both Friday’s jobs report for […]