October jobs report: extremely strong monthly gains overall, but at this rate still another 18 months from full jobs recovery HEADLINES: 638,000 million jobs gained. The gains since May total about 55% of the 22.1 million job losses in March and April. The alternate, and more volatile measure in the household report was 2,243,000 jobs […]

September housing construction and October manufacturing both on a tear It’s the first of the month, so we get the last laggard for September (construction spending) and the first read on October (ISM manufacturing). Both were very positive in their important components. While total construction spending was only up 0.3% from a downwardly revised August, […]

Steve Hutkins at Save The Post Office, October 31, 2020 This post was written in 2016 and slightly updated on Oct. 31, 2018, exactly two years ago today. The update started like this: According to this AP report today, alarms are already being raised about the rejection of many mail-in ballots in next week’s elections. […]

by New Deal democrat Weekly Indicators for October 26 – 30 at Seeking Alpha My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. Neither of the two constraints determining where the economy will go in the next few quarters are economic themselves. Rather, they are (1) the course of the pandemic, which will in turn be […]

Mark Jamison, Retired NC Postmaster at Save the Post Office, October 29, 2020 In forestry the practice of tree girdling is well known. Although there are some circumstances where this can be a useful practice, in most cases the technique is used for nefarious ends. Girdling involves removing the bark and layers below the bark, […]

Jobless claims: continued slow progress A quick note about the first report of Q3 GDP released this morning: the rebound is only about 2/3’s of the decline from last year. We are still about 3.5% below that number. On a *relative* basis, this was a “good” number, but on an absolute basis, this is still […]

Personal income and spending both surprisingly continued to increase in September, plus a note on GDP   Yesterday the first estimate of Q3 GDP was reported. Since this report includes 2 long leading indicators, it gives us insight into what the economy might be like in the 2nd half of next year. I have a […]

An Irony About Interest Rates And Income Distribution  It has long been a truism of economics that high-interest rates were favored by wealthy capitalist lenders against poor borrowers, with such a view lying behind the populist demands of the late 19th century.  We are used to applauding Keynes’s forecast of the “euthanasia of the rentiers.” […]

Economic Policy Institute offers context for wage increases for farmworkers: How much would it cost consumers to give farmworkers a significant raise? A 40% increase in pay would cost just $25 per household The increased media coverage of the plight of the more than 2 million farmworkers who pick and help produce our food—and whom the […]

by David Zetland Daylight spending more than you have Some countries are changing their clocks this week while others will do so next week. These changes are labeled “daylight saving” (DS) even though the number of daylight minutes stays the same. Marketing at its finest! Indeed, there’s abundant evidence that this twice-annual ritual is useless or even […]