Yesterday the first estimate of Q3 GDP was reported. Since this report includes 2 long leading indicators, it gives us insight into what the economy might be like in the 2nd half of next year.
I have a post on that up at Seeking Alpha. As usual, clicking over and reading should be informative for you, and it rewards me a little bit for my efforts.
This morning personal income and spending for September was reported. Both real income and spending increased, which is positive – and surprising.
On the spending side, below I show real personal spending (blue) in comparison with real retail sales (red), both scaled to 100 as of January of this year:
Both show similar trajectories, collapsing in April and rebounding since, including a further monthly increase from August to September. While real retail sales have exceeded their precession peak, the broader measure of real personal spending has still only recovered about 85% of its decline.